2024 is coming to an end. Multiple central banks have completed their final policy meetings of this year - some have kept their policies unchanged while others have cut interest rates, but all central banks have mentioned that the global economy and trade may undergo significant changes in 2025 due to Donald Trump's return to the White House, making the outlook even more uncertain.

Therefore, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in the United States - the inflation indicator preferred by the Federal Reserve - has become the final hurdle before Christmas. As the risk of rising inflation once again enters the Federal Reserve's vision, the results of this data may have a significant impact on the market.

This also explains the cautious sentiment in the Asian market. The MSCI Asia Pacific Broad Index, excluding Japan, hit a three-month low on Friday. Nasdaq futures fell 0.7%, while European Stoxx 50 index futures fell 1%.

Investors are also concerned that the Republican Party does not even support Trump's massive spending plan. If no action is taken, the US government may face a shutdown on Saturday.

For core PCE, it is expected to increase by 0.2% month on month in November. If the data remains flat, the market may be slightly calmer; If the growth exceeds 0.3%, it may raise doubts about the Federal Reserve's policy easing next year.

The futures market suggests that the United States may only cut interest rates by 37 basis points in 2025, equivalent to less than two rate cuts, with a terminal interest rate of 3.9%, much higher than expectations from a few months ago.

This expectation has caused a heavy blow to the US treasury bond bond market, and the US treasury bond bond market is likely to experience a decline for the fourth consecutive year. The yield of benchmark 10-year treasury bond jumped 40 basis points in the past two weeks, breaking the key level of 4.5% for the first time, the highest point since May.

Looking back at the past year, stocks, Bitcoin, and the US dollar have performed well, but other assets have performed averagely.

The Nikkei 225 index in Japan has risen by 16%, reaching a historic high and finally breaking free from decades of deflationary shadow. Even China's blue chip stocks have risen by 15%, and investors hope that Beijing will introduce more stimulus measures to stabilize the local economy.

The US dollar has risen 7% this year, reaching its highest point in two years. The continuous rise of the US dollar has forced other currencies, especially emerging market currencies, to engage in a fierce struggle for survival, and central banks of various countries have to intervene to maintain their own currency exchange rates. The Japanese yen is another major loser, with a 12% decline this year.

Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable rebound, rising 130% this year to a historic high, thanks to Trump's friendly policies.

The following are key events that may affect the market on Friday:

UK Retail Sales Data for November

PCE data for November in the United States

Speech by Gabriel Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland

Speech by Pal Longva, Deputy Governor of the Norwegian Central Bank