On Tuesday morning (September 3rd), international oil prices fluctuated narrowly in the Asian market, with US crude oil currently trading around $73.93 per barrel. On Monday, oil prices rose slightly, recovering some lost ground in the latter part of last week, as Libyan oil exports remained suspended and concerns about increased production from OPEC+in October eased.

Additionally, sources reported that a Saudi oil tanker and another oil tanker were attacked in the Red Sea; The survey shows that OPEC's production in August fell to the lowest level since January; The geopolitical situation remains tense, providing support for oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.49 US dollars, or 0.7%, to 74.04 US dollars on Monday. Brent crude oil futures closed up $0.59, or 0.8%, at $77.52 per barrel on Monday. Due to Monday being a public holiday in the US market, trading was light.

Last Friday, Brent crude oil and WTI fell by 1.4% and 3.1% respectively.

Six engineers said that oil exports from Libya's major ports stopped on Monday, and oil production across the country has been reduced. The standoff between opposing political factions over the central bank and control of oil revenues continues.

The Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) also announced that the El Feel oil field will experience force majeure starting from September 2nd.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity Analyst at SEB, said, "The current oil production turbulence in Libya may provide space for OPEC+to increase supply. However, these fluctuations have become quite normal in the past few years, meaning that any shutdown may be short-lived; news shows that signals to restart production have been sent out.

The Arabian Gulf Oil Company in Libya resumed production of approximately 120000 barrels per day on Sunday (September 1) to supply oil to a power plant in the port of Hariga.

Six sources from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) have stated that the organization will increase oil production as planned starting from October.

Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, said that the news of increased production led to a decline in oil prices last week, but the scale of the sell-off was too large.

However, Brent crude oil and WTI have been declining for two consecutive months, as concerns about demand from the United States and major Asian countries have outweighed recent supply disruptions in Libya and supply risks related to the Middle East conflict.

The geopolitical situation is still providing support for oil prices. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected calls for a softening of the military presence in the southern border area of Gaza as a condition for the ceasefire agreement, stating that the presence of troops can control a key lifeline of Hamas and is crucial for Israel.

This passage, known as the Philadelphia Corridor, is located on the southern edge of the Gaza Strip, bordering Egypt. The issue of Israeli troops has been a key obstacle to reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

Hamas has stated that there cannot be any Israeli presence here, while Netanyahu insists that Israel will not abandon this corridor. The Israeli army has discovered dozens of tunnels here, claiming that these tunnels are used to smuggle weapons and ammunition into Gaza.

The axis of evil requires the Philadelphia Corridor, so we must control it, "he said at a press conference in Jerusalem. He said that if Israel withdraws from the corridor, it will be difficult to return under international pressure.

On Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who has had multiple conflicts with Netanyahu and other ministers, called on the cabinet to overturn the earlier decision to continue stationing troops in the Philadelphia corridor in order to reach an agreement to allow more hostages to return home.

The attack on a Saudi oil tanker and another oil tanker in the Red Sea has also raised concerns in the market about supply disruptions.

Two informed sources reported that two oil tankers (Amjad flying the Saudi flag and Blue Lagoon I flying the Panamanian flag) were attacked in the Red Sea waters near Yemen on Monday.

Yemeni Houthi militants claimed responsibility for the attack on Blue Lagoon with multiple missiles and drones late on Monday, but did not mention Saudi oil tankers.

According to sources, the two ships were hit at a close distance but were able to continue sailing without causing significant damage or casualties.

The owner of the Amjad, Saudi Arabian National Shipping Company Bahri, has not yet responded to a request for comment. The maximum capacity of this super tanker is 2 million barrels.

The Greek management of Blue Lagoon I, Sea Trade Marine SA, did not immediately provide a comment. The maximum loading capacity of this Suezmax tanker is 1 million barrels.

One of the sources said that the Amjad is unlikely to be a direct target.

The Joint Maritime Information Center, operated by international naval forces and responsible for tracking Houthi attacks, reported that on Monday, three ballistic missiles attacked the Blue Lagoon I oil tanker 70 nautical miles northwest of the northern Yemeni port of Salif.

The center stated in a report that "according to the assessment, the reason why the M/V BLUE LAGOON I oil tanker became the target of the attack is because other vessels of its company have recently docked in Israel." "All crew members on board are safe. The damage to the ship is minimal and does not require assistance.

Another positive news is that a Reuters survey released on Monday found that OPEC oil production in August fell to its lowest level since January, as the situation in Libya disrupted oil supply and exacerbated the impact of continued voluntary production cuts by other member countries and OPEC+.

The survey found that the average daily production of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last month was 26.36 million barrels, a decrease of 340000 barrels from July. This is the lowest production since January 2024.

Amid the deadlock among various political factions over control of the central bank, Libya's exports and production have declined, which has helped push up oil prices and increased the possibility that OPEC+will increase production as planned from October.

The investigation found that Libya suffered the largest oil supply loss last month, reaching 290000 barrels per day.

According to some traffic data such as Kpler, the impact on Libya's exports in August was minimal, but sources surveyed estimated that the impact on production was more significant.

On this trading day, investors need to pay attention to the August ISM Manufacturing PMI data in the United States and keep an eye out for relevant news on the geopolitical situation. The API crude oil inventory data, originally scheduled to be released every Wednesday morning Beijing time, has been postponed to Thursday morning Beijing time this week due to the US Labor Day holiday.

Continuous daily chart of US crude oil