The gold market is hovering around a one week high today, with spot gold trading around $2515 and hitting a high of $2523.29 the previous trading day. Gold has risen by 0.6% this week, mainly due to market attention on the upcoming non farm payroll data from the United States. These data will have a significant impact on the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, thereby affecting the short-term trend of gold prices.

The current gold price remains in a high volatility pattern. Since the beginning of this week, gold prices have steadily risen, mainly due to weak job vacancy data in the United States pushing up gold prices and bringing them close to the key resistance level of $2530. The performance of gold is usually closely related to the level of interest rates, and in a low interest rate environment, the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven asset increases.

Technical analysis:

Daily chart: Gold rebounded in the support zone around $2480 and is now approaching the top of the range. The current price range indicates that bears may intervene above resistance levels, leading to a price drop. Bulls hope that prices will break through resistance levels in order to seek new upward space.

4-hour chart: displays the trading range between the support level of $2480 and the resistance level of $2530. Market participants buy at support levels and sell at resistance levels. The release of non farm employment data may trigger prices to break through the current range.

1-hour chart: If the price breaks through the downward trend line, bulls will actively intervene, pushing the gold price to rebound to the resistance level. Due to today's non farm payroll report being the most important data of the year, the market reaction may be very intense.

The rise in gold this week is partly attributed to the decline in real yields, which is due to weak US economic data leading the market to adopt a dovish stance towards the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. However, if tonight's non farm payroll data performs strongly, it may lead to a reversal in real yields and put short-term pressure on gold prices.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the market's bet on the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18th has risen from 34% a week ago to 41%. This expectation has raised market attention to the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Expected data:

Non farm employment data: Market consensus expects 160000 new jobs to be added in August, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%.

Average hourly wage: expected monthly rate to increase by 0.3%, higher than last month's 0.2%; The year-on-year growth rate is expected to increase from 3.6% to 3.7%.

Authoritative analysis shows that if the non farm employment report weakens, gold prices may further rise. Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet in New Delhi, pointed out that "if the upcoming non farm payroll report shows a weak labor market, gold prices may further rise, although the market may experience volatility

market prospect 

Although gold prices have reached a historic high this year, with an increase of about 22%, the market's expectations for future trends are still full of uncertainty. The World Gold Council pointed out in its monthly report that election dynamics and expectations of interest rate cuts have increased market activity in gold, while the "extended" positions in the options market have also confirmed this. Spot silver remains at $28.82, and the shortage is expected to widen by 17%, potentially creating a bullish scenario.

In the short term, gold prices will be directly affected by tonight's non farm payroll data. The market's response to data may trigger drastic fluctuations in gold prices, especially when the data results differ significantly from market expectations.