Investors are increasingly believing that the US economy will achieve a 'soft landing', where rising interest rates lead to a decrease in inflation without causing a significant blow to economic growth. However, Michael Darda, Chief Economist of Ross Capital Partners, stated that there are cracks beneath the surface of the US economy.

Darda warns, "The ice surface we are facing is thinner than many people expected

Darda pointed out that the rising unemployment rate and increased profit expectations both led to a sharp drop in the US stock market in early August and early September. In addition, there have been some cracks in the business cycle. In recent times, the stock prices of companies that have consistently exceeded expectations in terms of revenue or earnings have not performed well.

In addition, disappointing news has also been reported in the US job market.

The July employment report unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, the highest level in nearly three years, due to market panic caused by the unemployment rate. This rise also triggered the highly anticipated recession indicator - the Sam's Rule.

Darda said that the rising unemployment rate is still "somewhat concerning". He does not fully agree with the recent optimistic comments that the rise in unemployment rate is not important as long as the economy continues to grow. He warned that if the US economy continues to grow, the growth rate will be below trend or below potential growth rate. There is only a thin line between this and a real recession.

Last Friday's data showed that the unemployment rate in the United States decreased by only 0.1% to 4.2% in August.

Overall, Darda's view is cautious: "Considering the market background, valuation levels, and the business cycle we are in over the past two years, I believe the US economy will enter a period of turbulence

Based on the above news, if the US economy really falls into a period of turbulence as predicted by Darda, it will suppress the US dollar, enhance market risk aversion, and thus benefit gold. Investors need to remain vigilant about this.