摩根大通首席经济学家表示美联储本月应该降息0.5个百分点fxcue.com

摩根大通（JPMorgan）的迈克尔·费罗利（Michael Feroli）认为，美联储应该在9月会议上降息50个基点。该行首席美国经济学家周四在接受CNBC节目采访时表示:“我们认为，他们应该尽快回到中性（利率）状态，这是一个很好的理由。”他补充说，央行中性政策设定的最高点是4%左右，比目前的水平低150个基点。“我们认为，他们有充分理由加快降息步伐。”根据CME FedWatch Tool的数据，交易员预计美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间从目前的5.25% - 5.50%下调0.5个百分点至4.75% - 5%的可能性为39%。如果降息0.25个百分点至5%至5.25%的区间，则降息的几率约为61%。“如果你等到通胀率已经回到2%，你可能已经等得太久了。”费罗利说。“虽然通胀仍略高于目标，但失业率可能略高于他们认为与充分就业相符的水平。现在，就业和通胀都有风险，如果其中一种风险正在形成，你总是可以逆转方向的。”他发表上述言论之际，8月份是自2021年1月以来私营部门就业增长最疲弱的一个月。在此之前，7月份的失业率小幅上升至4.3%，引发了被称为“萨姆规则”（Sahm Rule）的经济衰退指标。尽管如此，费罗利说，他不认为美国经济正在“解体”。“如果经济正在崩溃，我认为在下次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上，你有理由将利率下调50个基点以上。”这位经济学家继续说道。美联储将在9月17日至18日就利率走向做出决定。

摩根大通首席经济学家表示美联储本月应该降息0.5个百分点

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摩根大通首席经济学家表示美联储本月应该降息0.5个百分点

美国银行表示本周美国股市最大的风险是一份火热的8月就业报告

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Crude oil, focus on resistance at $70.6-71.5 above and support at $69.3-68.5 below.

Today, the rebound in gold trading is mainly driven by short selling, supplemented by buying during a pullback. The short-term focus is on the resistance line of 2620-2625 above, and the short-term focus is on the support line of 2600-2598 below.

Buy more directly near the current gold price of 2617, with targets of 2642, 2650, and 2664; If three points of 2642, 2650, and 2664 are given for the first time, short selling is allowed; If you buy more in batches around three o'clock on 2614, 2611, and 2605;

Today's gold trading strategy: Short selling near 2630-2628, stop loss at 2636, target at 2620-2610. Suggest buying long at 2610-2612, stop loss at 2505, target at 2620-2625;

Gold first fell close to 2602 or 2594 and bought long, then rose close to 2624 or yesterday's high and sold short. Crude oil still tends to fluctuate mainly today, buying long below 68.8 or yesterday's low, and selling short above yesterday's high or 70.7.

Today, gold is mainly focused on rebound short selling, with a short-term focus on the resistance line of 2628-2633. If it does not break through, short selling can be done. The short-term focus below is on the first-line support of 2600-2595, and it is advisable to buy more lightly.

Short term focus on the resistance line of 70.5-71.0 above crude oil, and short-term focus on the support line of 68.4-67.9 below.

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摩根大通首席经济学家表示 美联储本月应该降息0.5个百分点

美国7月份职位空缺减少幅度大于预期 这是劳动力市场走软的又一迹象

美国就业人数不足 可能是美联储面临的警告信号

经济学家警告称：美联储本月大幅降息可能对市场“非常危险”

哈里斯公布了28%的资本利得税计划 软化了拜登提出的40%的税率

华尔街交易员突然意识到未来的经济风险

在成本驱动下 大众汽车考虑历史性地首次关闭德国工厂

摩根大通首席经济学家表示 美联储本月应该降息0.5个百分点

﻿美国银行表示 本周美国股市最大的风险是一份火热的8月就业报告

Please sign in

Trader

Crude oil, focus on resistance at $70.6-71.5 above and support at $69.3-68.5 below.

Today, the rebound in gold trading is mainly driven by short selling, supplemented by buying during a pullback. The short-term focus is on the resistance line of 2620-2625 above, and the short-term focus is on the support line of 2600-2598 below.

Buy more directly near the current gold price of 2617, with targets of 2642, 2650, and 2664; If three points of 2642, 2650, and 2664 are given for the first time, short selling is allowed; If you buy more in batches around three o'clock on 2614, 2611, and 2605;

Today's gold trading strategy: Short selling near 2630-2628, stop loss at 2636, target at 2620-2610. Suggest buying long at 2610-2612, stop loss at 2505, target at 2620-2625;

Gold first fell close to 2602 or 2594 and bought long, then rose close to 2624 or yesterday's high and sold short. Crude oil still tends to fluctuate mainly today, buying long below 68.8 or yesterday's low, and selling short above yesterday's high or 70.7.

Today, gold is mainly focused on rebound short selling, with a short-term focus on the resistance line of 2628-2633. If it does not break through, short selling can be done. The short-term focus below is on the first-line support of 2600-2595, and it is advisable to buy more lightly.

Short term focus on the resistance line of 70.5-71.0 above crude oil, and short-term focus on the support line of 68.4-67.9 below.

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摩根大通首席经济学家表示美联储本月应该降息0.5个百分点

美国7月份职位空缺减少幅度大于预期这是劳动力市场走软的又一迹象

美国就业人数不足可能是美联储面临的警告信号

哈里斯公布了28%的资本利得税计划软化了拜登提出的40%的税率

在成本驱动下大众汽车考虑历史性地首次关闭德国工厂

摩根大通首席经济学家表示美联储本月应该降息0.5个百分点

美国银行表示本周美国股市最大的风险是一份火热的8月就业报告