The pound showed a trend of rising and falling in the Asian and European markets today (Wednesday, September 25th), consolidating its gains since the low of 1.3249 (Monday) earlier in the day, breaking through 1.3400, and reaching a new 30 month high of 1.3429 in the Asian market today (7 points away from the peak in March 2022).

The S&P 500 index closed at a historic high on Tuesday; Positive news for the risk sensitive pound. The latest poll shows Harris winning, which is believed to be bearish on the US dollar and therefore will provide support for the pound.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday showed that Harris leads Trump with a 47% to 40% approval rating in the upcoming election on November 5th. The latest poll conducted an online survey of 1029 American adults nationwide, including 871 registered voters.

At 16:00 Beijing time today, Bank of England MPC member Greene gave a speech on consumer issues, stating that UK consumption remains weak and inflation sustainability indicators are generally moving in the right direction. The wage growth rate has decreased, but it is still higher than the level reflected by our model. We will pay attention to the upcoming data to find evidence that the risk of sustained inflationary pressures is weakening. In terms of monetary policy, Green stated that gradually lifting restrictive measures is appropriate. A cautious and prudent monetary policy easing approach is appropriate. The risk of economic activity tends to be upward, which may mean higher long-term neutral interest rates.

After Green's speech at the Bank of England, GBP/USD fell slightly by more than ten points in the short term to the current daily low of 1.3375.

The next Bank of England interest rate decision will be released on November 7th. Prior to this, the UK CPI and important economic data will guide market expectations on whether the Bank of England will continue to cut interest rates.

From a technical perspective, both the daily and weekly charts show that the pound is overbought, with relative strength indicators exceeding 70, indicating a pullback in the daily chart.

In the short term, the 15 minute 200 minute moving average is at 1.3365, and we can focus on whether it can stabilize. If it falls, we should pay attention to the support range of 1.3350-1.3346, which is the area where long and short positions have been continuously competing in recent days.

1.3429 is not only a intraday high, but also a new high for 2024. Some investors sold the pound when it retraced to 1.3400, and the momentum indicator remained positive. If it closes below 1.3331 (the low on September 24), it may trigger a larger correction.