On Friday (June 28th) afternoon trading in the Asian market, the US dollar index rose to 106.12, and gold struggled to move under pressure around $2320. After the first televised presidential debate in the United States, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's approval rating significantly surpassed that of current President Biden, boosting the US currency market.

The whole debate between Trump and Biden lasted for about 90 minutes. The two debated around the US economy, immigration, abortion, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East war and other issues. In dealing with immigration issues, Biden criticized the separation of flesh and blood policy implemented during the Trump administration, and Trump accused the Biden administration of failing to ensure the security of the US southern border, leading to the entry of criminals into the United States.

Regarding the January 6, 2021 Capitol Hill riot, Biden stated that Trump encouraged his supporters to go to Capitol Hill that day. And Trump denied being responsible for the riot that day.

On the Middle East issue, Biden stated that the ceasefire agreement he is promoting includes an exchange of detained individuals and a sustained ceasefire with additional conditions. When asked if he supports the establishment of an independent Palestinian state to support regional peace, Trump did not provide a direct answer.

During the television debate, Biden cited incorrect data, including claiming that he created 15000 jobs during his tenure, rather than the actual 15 million. He also stated that he set a cap of $200 per year on drug prices, but it was actually $2000, and incorrectly stated that some wealthy Americans are trillions of dollars rich.

Foreign media pointed out that Biden shifted his gaze most of the time when Trump answered questions, spoke in a weak tone when answering his own questions, and cleared his throat several times. According to insiders, Biden has caught a cold.

Biden's indecisive performance in the first debate may weaken the momentum of his campaign team and lead the Republican Party to intensify attacks on the 81 year old Biden, who is the oldest president in American history and no longer has a four-year term in office.

According to a CNN quick poll conducted by SSRS on debate observers, registered voters who watched the Biden Trump debate on Thursday said that 67% of voters compared to 33% believed Trump's performance was better.

Prior to the debate, the same voters stated that 55% of respondents, to 45%, expected Trump's performance to be better than Biden's.

The results of the public opinion survey only reflect the views of the voters who watch the debate, and do not represent the views of all voters, whether it is population structure, political preferences, or level of attention to politics. A public opinion survey shows that the Republican leaning audience is 5 percentage points higher than the Democratic leaning audience, therefore, compared to all registered voters nationwide, the debate audience is slightly inclined towards the Republican Party.

But the results have changed compared to 2020, when debate observers believed that Biden's performance in presidential debates was better than Trump's.

57% of the audience said they do not have true confidence in Biden's ability to lead the country, and 44% said they do not have true confidence in Trump's ability to lead the country. These numbers are basically consistent with the pre debate opinion poll results, where 55% of voters said they had no confidence in Biden and 47% said they lacked confidence in Trump.

The CNN poll conducted a text message survey of 565 registered voters in the United States who expressed their views on Thursday's debate, and the survey results only represent the views of debate observers. The interviewees were recruited before the debate and selected through a survey of the members of the SSRS opinion group, which is a nationally representative group recruited using probability based sampling techniques. The sampling error range for all debate observer samples is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.

According to US media reports, the second debate between the two will be held on September 10th.

Despite the short-term appreciation of the US dollar, it is worth noting that the yen exchange rate hit a 34 year low on April 23, which Trump pointed out in a post is a disaster for the United States. When the US dollar/yen appreciates significantly, the price competitiveness of US exports will decrease and become unable to compete. He emphasized that the US manufacturing industry will either be forced to lose numerous business opportunities in smart countries or build factories locally.

Trump pointed out that during his tenure, he had set limits to curb the excessive appreciation of the US dollar, while criticizing Biden for letting the appreciation of the US dollar go unchecked.

The market believes that if Trump returns to the White House, there is a possibility of restarting a weak dollar trend. There are even rumors in the market that Robert Lighthizer, who shares his interests, may become the Treasury Secretary, overseeing US trade and exchange rate policy, completely abandoning the "strong dollar policy" pursued since 1995. However, the actual situation may not necessarily be so simple.

The weak US dollar and increased tariffs have become the main tools in Trump's mercantilist policy. Although the US dollar did indeed weaken during Trump's presidency, it was not entirely the result of his deliberate underestimation of the US dollar.

"Based on current reactions, the market believes that Trump has won the debate," said Carol Kong, strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) in Sydney. "However, it is still too early to draw a conclusion now."

The yield of US treasury bond bonds rose slightly, and US stock index futures rose slightly. The Mexican peso fell nearly 1% and then narrowed to 0.4%, with most Asian currencies remaining stable.

Predictlt's real-time betting data shows that Trump has a chance of winning the November election of over 60%, higher than the 53% before the debate began.

Polymarket data found that Trump's winning rate reached a historic high of 68%, far surpassing Biden.

However, Bloomberg strategists believe that the impact of the US presidential debate on the market has been limited so far. While the appreciation of the US dollar aligns with Trump's argument that it may exacerbate trade tensions and fiscal concerns, the common safe haven indicator, the Australian dollar, also depreciated by 0.4% in Friday trading. Therefore, the appreciation of the US dollar seems to be more related to domestic economic factors.