Nowadays, Wall Street is increasingly confident that there is new support for this round of oil price rise, which can last for a longer period of time.

Standard Chartered Bank commodity analysts say that based on fundamental factors, Brent crude oil prices above $90 per barrel will continue to rise. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the global oil market will experience a supply gap in the third quarter and will continue into the fourth quarter, further putting downward pressure on inventories.

Standard Chartered Bank quickly pointed out that there seems to be a systematic downward bias in the estimation of fuel demand in the United States, with actual gasoline demand exceeding expectations in 22 out of the past 24 months, while distillate demand (mainly diesel) has been consistently raised in the past 24 months. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the US Energy Information Administration's estimate of gasoline demand for April is too low, and actual demand may exceed expectations.

Recently, Standard Chartered Bank's forecast has been confirmed, with gasoline demand in April dropping to a two month low instead of a 20-year low. On June 28th, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) released the Monthly Petroleum Supply Report (PSM), which significantly increased the prices of gasoline, distillate oil (mainly diesel), and aviation fuels. The year-on-year change in demand for gasoline was revised from -4.1% to -1.5%, the year-on-year change in demand for distillate oil was revised from -9.2% to -2.0%, and the year-on-year change in demand for aviation fuel was revised from -1.0% to+5.4%. Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that the comprehensive increase in transportation fuel demand is 602000 barrels per day, exceeding the initial data increase of 547000 barrels per day and 487000 barrels per day in September and November 2023, respectively.

Overall, Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that in the past 53 months, US crude oil production has only increased by 248000 barrels per day.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Beryl is currently causing severe damage in the southeastern Caribbean Sea. However, hurricanes seem unlikely to pose a direct threat to critical infrastructure upstream and downstream of the US Gulf of Mexico, with most models predicting that they will first make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula and then make a second landfall in northern Mexico through a significantly weakened system. That is to say, Beryl was the earliest recorded Category 5 Atlantic hurricane, which led to predictions of a very active hurricane season. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that this may put the market in a tense state for at least the next two months.

Brent crude oil daily chart