Has the wind direction changed? US inventory declines, OPEC+considers delaying production increase, oil prices rebound by over 2%

2024-10-31 2233

On Wednesday (October 30th), oil prices rebounded, rising more than 2% after data showed an unexpected drop in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, as well as reports that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) may postpone planned oil production increases. Due to the reduced risk of war in the Middle East, US WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures fell more than 6% earlier this week.

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.40, or 2.1%, to close at $68.61 per barrel.

Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose 2% to close at $72.55 per barrel.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that due to increased demand, US gasoline inventories unexpectedly fell to a two-year low last week, and crude oil inventories also unexpectedly decreased due to a decline in imports.

Last week, the amount of crude oil imported by the United States from Saudi Arabia fell to its lowest point since January 2021, at only 13000 barrels per day, lower than the previous week's 150000 barrels per day. The US Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil imports from Canada, Iraq, Colombia, and Brazil have all decreased this week.

Kpler analyst Matt Smith said, 'The supporting factor is the decrease in gasoline inventories in the context of an implied weekly increase in demand,' and added that the decrease in imports helped crude oil inventories barely maintain a slight decline.

In addition, there are reports that due to concerns about weak oil demand and increased supply, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) may postpone their oil production plans for December by one month or more.

Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group, said, "OPEC+has always suggested that the cancellation of voluntary production cuts will depend on market conditions." "Given the weak macroeconomic reality that has led to a downward adjustment in global demand growth expectations, it is not surprising that they may be rethinking the timing of restoring supply

The organization plans to increase oil production by 180000 barrels per day in December. OPEC+has reduced oil production by 5.86 million barrels per day, equivalent to approximately 5.7% of global oil demand.

Two OPEC+sources told Reuters that the decision to postpone production increases could be made as early as next week.

OPEC+plans to hold a meeting on December 1st to decide on the next policy measures.

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