On the evening of July 5th, the US Department of Labor released the June non farm payroll report. The report shows that the number of new jobs added in the United States reached 206000, exceeding market expectations by 190000, but falling slightly from the previous value. The unemployment rate in the United States rose to 4.1% in June, a new high since November 2021. Exceeding market expectations by 4.0%. The annual salary rate is 3.9%, a significant decrease from the previous value of 4.1%.

The unexpected non farm payroll data boosted market sentiment, with gold plummeting by $17 in an instant, hitting a low of $2348.49 per ounce, but quickly rebounding to nearly $28 and reaching a high of $2375.98 per ounce. This was because the unexpected non farm payroll data could theoretically suppress the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, but it was due to a slowdown in wage growth, reigniting market expectations for the Fed's short-term rate cuts.

The US dollar index fell 30 points in the short term, hitting a new low on June 13th, and later regained all previous losses. It is now at 105.0685, and the intraday decline has narrowed to 0.06%.

The latest upside down range of the yield curve of US two-year and 10-year treasury bond bonds is 35.5 basis points. The latest upside down range of the yield curve of US two-year and 10-year treasury bond bonds is 35.5 basis points. After the release of US non-farm data, US interest rate futures traders expect a slight increase in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September and December.

The yield of Eurozone treasury bond fell after the release of US employment data, and the yield of German 10-year bonds fell 4 basis points to 2.545%.

An analysis by Dutch International Bank suggests that unexpected non farm data will limit the rise of the euro against the US dollar as the market will reassess the outlook for the US economy.

Philip Wee from DBS Bank also pointed out that with strong non farm data, the US index may return and remain above 105, which will provide support for the US dollar.

Analysts of Yuxin Bank predicted that if the job market performs strongly, the yield of US treasury bond bonds may rise, which may delay the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle. Meanwhile, the pullback in gold prices also reflects the market's reassessment of the strong performance of the US economy.

Market analysis suggests that strong non farm payroll data indicates that the US economy is still growing healthily, which may enhance the confidence of Federal Reserve decision-makers in the inflation outlook and reduce the likelihood of the Fed starting interest rate cuts later this year. Economist Brian Bethune's view also supports this view, stating that the economy is entering a reasonable and sustainable stage of employment growth.

However, even with strong non-agricultural data, the market still needs to be cautious of the "boot landing" market, which means that the market may quickly reverse after the data is released.

KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer reminds that non farm data exceeded expectations, and investors may reassess the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, which may limit the upward potential of gold.

Analyst Alexandre Tanzi said that as the situation begins to normalize, the volatility of the US labor market has weakened. Since 2020, the average monthly net change in non farm employment has been close to 400000 people, while the expected non farm data for June is 190000 people. The standard deviation of predictors in institutional surveys is the narrowest since February 2020.