The full name of NZIER is the New Zealand Economic Research Institute, and the NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Committee is independent of the Federal Reserve of New Zealand. Individual opinions are their own, not the views of their respective organizations. The next release of the Shadow Committee will be on Monday, August 12, 2024, before the New Zealand Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement. The participants of the Shadow Committee have a percentage preference for each policy measure. Overall, the average of these preferences forms the opinion of the shadow committee before each monetary policy decision.

NZIER latest release on July 8th:

Most Shadow Committee members suggest that the New Zealand Federal Reserve maintain its official cash rate (OCR) at 5.50% in the upcoming monetary policy review on July 10, 2024. The weak growth and weak labor market, as well as the sustained slowdown in annual CPI inflation, indicate that the growth of OCR so far is reducing inflationary pressure on the New Zealand economy. However, domestic inflationary pressures remain high, and members of the Shadow Committee believe that the New Zealand Federal Reserve should carefully adjust its OCR at the moment. One member believes that there is reason to lower the OCR given the deteriorating economic outlook.

The core view of the Shadow Committee regarding what the OCR should be in one year is to relax the OCR, with most people believing it to be between 4.25% and 5.25%. This reflects a broad consensus that the sustained easing of economic cooling and inflationary pressures should provide space for the New Zealand Federal Reserve to initiate an OCR easing cycle next year. Several members believe that given the weak economic momentum, the pressure on the New Zealand Federal Reserve to lower OCR starting early next year is increasing. But one member suggested that the New Zealand Federal Reserve wait for further data to observe the evolution trends of upward and downward risks.