The Weekly Trader's Promise (COT) report displays the holdings of asset management companies and large speculators in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures market. The following is partial position data disclosed in the COT report released by the US Commodity Exchange Commission as of Tuesday, October 29, 2024.

There is a 3-day lag between the release date of the report and the actual positions held by the recorded traders. The report was released on Friday, but only the data up to Tuesday is included.

Large speculators net short EUR/USD futures for the second consecutive week, with total short positions increasing by 15.4% (279000 contracts). They also turned to net short yen futures, increasing their total short exposure by 34.8% (232000 contracts). Asset management companies and large speculators seem to reduce the risk of AUD/USD futures by cutting long and short positions. Early signs of gold peaking may be forming, with two groups of traders reducing a total of 148000 short positions and 124000 long positions. The asset management company has pushed the net long exposure of VIX futures to a one-year high.

USD/JPY(JPY Futures) Position - COT Report:

Large speculators turned net short of the Japanese yen, ending a 10 week net long multi day position in the yen. This is the first bullish trend since the first quarter of 2021. The asset management company is also net short selling, but it's already the second week.

However, given that the subsequent meetings of the Bank of Japan were not as mild as expected and there were rumors of a possible interest rate hike, their follow-up on net short exposure may be brief.

EUR/USD (Euro Futures) Position - COT Report:

Large speculators have increased their net short exposure for the second consecutive week, reaching the most bearish level since September 2022. However, asset management companies still firmly maintain a net long position, and their net exposure value remained almost unchanged last week (only down 1000 contracts). Given the consecutive weeks of sell-off in the EUR/USD, I am now wondering if it will rebound, which means there will be a deeper pullback in the USD. After 5 weeks of selling, I have a similar view on the Australian dollar/US dollar.

AUD/USD (AUD Futures) Position - COT Report:

The bearish sentiment of asset management companies towards Australian dollar/US dollar futures has reached its highest level in six weeks, while the net long exposure of large speculators has remained unchanged. Anyway, Australian dollar/US dollar futures seem to be generally reducing risk, with a decrease in total open interest contracts and a decrease in trading volume for asset management companies and large speculators. These two groups of traders collectively reduced 2.377 million long contracts and closed 1.222 million short contracts.

Gold Futures (GC) Position - COT Report:

Indications suggest that gold prices at such dazzling highs may not be all good. Last week, both large speculators and managed funds reduced their long and short exposures to gold, and the price of gold closed with a weekly bearish trend.

The total short contracts of large speculators rose to a 49 week high of 878000, while the total short contracts of asset management companies rose to a 23 week high of 397000. The total number of long contracts decreased by 124000. The result was a net long exposure that was dragged down by a total of 153000 contracts between traders. This is not considered significant in the macro plan, but it does indicate a certain degree of nervousness among the bulls around $2700 and suggests that we may see a correction before the price ultimately reaches $3000 next year.

Position of Wall Street Indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ 100) - COT Report:

We also see a weakening of Wall Street's upward momentum, with the net long exposure of S&P 500 index futures decreasing at the fastest weekly rate among 12 asset management companies (-20.5 million contracts). They also reduced their net long exposure to Dow Jones futures at the fastest pace in four weeks (by 29000 contracts).

Nevertheless, their net long exposure to Nasdaq futures only increased by 120 contracts, despite price movements in the second half of last week indicating that traders were generally reducing risk over the weekend leading up to the US election.

VIX Futures Position (IMM Data) - COT Report:

The asset management company pushed their net long exposure to a 52 week high, an increase of 9.9% (6.2 million contracts).