Market analyst Natasha Turak said that US oil producers expect Trump to reduce regulation of crude oil production during his presidency, which means an increase in oil supply leading to a decrease in prices. But things are not that simple: Trump, who just announced his victory, has also vowed to impose more sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil, which means the global market may become more tense, potentially pushing up oil prices.

At the same time, Trump's policies may escalate international trade tensions, which could suppress global economic growth and slow down oil demand. Therefore, the long-term prospects of the market are clearly mixed.

Goldman Sachs commodity analyst wrote, "In theory, the impact of Trump's possible re-election on oil prices is vague, and there are some short-term downside risks to Iran's oil supply, leading to price upside risks. However, oil demand faces medium-term downside risks, so trade tensions may escalate, and global GDP also faces downside risks

On Wednesday, Trump delivered a speech at the Republican campaign headquarters in Florida, expressing his enthusiasm for increasing US oil production.

Under the leadership of the Biden administration, US oil and gas production has reached historic highs. Despite promises of environmental management during the campaign, the Biden administration has gradually changed its attitude towards the industry.

The current trading price of US crude oil futures (including West Texas Intermediate and international benchmark Brent crude oil) is $70 to $75 per barrel, lower than many oil producers seeking to balance costs and budgets amid slowing global oil demand and increasing supply.

Due to Trump's encouragement of domestic oil production and increased supply, many market participants predict that crude oil prices will fall. Cole Smead, President and CEO of Smead Capital, stated that further promoting drilling projects and providing more supply to the market will lead to a decrease in prices, thereby reducing revenue for US producers.

However, Amrita Sen, founder and research director of Energy Aspects based in London, has a different view on concerns about sanctions.

Sen said, "Every hedge fund I have dealt with thinks it's bearish because Trump tends to post information about low oil prices on Twitter. I actually think the opposite is true. There is currently a large amount of sanctioned oil in the market, especially from Iran. Iran currently produces 3.5 million barrels or more of crude oil per day, of which 1.8 million barrels are for export as the government relaxes sanctions and their enforcement

Sen also stated that Iran's daily oil exports may decrease by 1 million barrels. During Trump's last administration, Iran's export volume was only 400000 barrels per day. Now I am not saying that Iran's oil exports will continue to decline, because Iran can secretly increase exports through other channels, but the daily export volume will still decrease by 1 million barrels. She added that some Venezuelan oil may also exit the market, which may affect supply.