On Thursday (July 11th) in the Asian morning trading, spot gold fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading around $2372.41 per ounce. Gold prices rose and fell on Wednesday, as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave testimony in the Senate on Tuesday to "warm up" the September interest rate cut. The market expects that US inflation growth will slow down, and gold prices briefly rose to around $2386 on Wednesday. However, Powell's testimony in the House of Representatives on Wednesday was more cautious, causing gold prices to recoup their gains and close at around $2371.07 per ounce.

In addition, increasing expectations of a possible ceasefire agreement between Israel and Gaza have also suppressed the safe haven buying demand for gold.

More investors continue to wait for more clues from US inflation data.

Jim Wyckoff, Senior Market Analyst at Kitco Metals, said, "Powell's speech in the Senate on Tuesday did not bring any hawkish surprises, which can also be seen as calming the market's view that the Federal Reserve cannot cut interest rates this year.".

On Tuesday, Powell maintained a cautious tone and added that "more good data will strengthen" the rationale for loose monetary policy.

However, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated on Wednesday that the Fed will make interest rate decisions "when needed", downplaying the implication that the September rate cut may be seen as political action before the autumn presidential election.

"Our commitment is to make decisions based on data, future data, constantly changing prospects, and risk balance when necessary, rather than considering other factors, including political factors," Powell said at a hearing held by the House Financial Services Committee. "We have been doing this for a long time, including in election years, and this is the promise we will make... Everything we do will have sufficient basis. For us, considering the election cycle is not appropriate, no matter what."

Powell made the above statement in response to a question from Republican Congressman Mike Lawler in New York State. Lawler's question is whether the September interest rate cut will be seen as an attempt to tilt the competitive environment before the November 5th election.

Powell is still interested in seeing further trends, and I think we will have to look at CPI data, U S. Paula Comings, the head of foreign exchange sales at Bank in New York, said, "He is continuing to hedge his bets and is very fair and balanced."

Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay in Toronto, said, "Powell took a relatively cautious attitude, but there were enough dovish hints in his account to help improve market risk appetite. The labor market no longer generates inflationary pressures that the US economy has been struggling to cope with, which helps reduce the possibility of further interest rate hikes and increases the likelihood of a rate cut in September."

"What we see is that the market is gradually believing that interest rates will be lowered for the first time in September," U S. Rob Haworth, Senior Investment Strategy Director at Bank Wealth Management, said. "We have seen an increasing possibility of a rate cut in September. The question is: Is the Federal Reserve prepared to confirm to the market at its July meeting that they are ready to cut rates in September?"

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the market believes that there is a 75% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September and another rate cut in December. When interest rates decrease, the attractiveness of non interest gold often increases.

The focus now shifts to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Thursday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) report on Friday, with recent data showing that inflation has cooled from an unexpected high at the beginning of the year.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to show an overall CPI increase of 0.1% month on month and 3.1% year-on-year, with core CPI expected to increase by 0.2% month on month and 3.4% year-on-year, respectively.

In terms of geopolitical situation, the Israeli delegation has arrived in Doha and will hold quadrilateral talks on the ceasefire in Gaza; This may suppress the safe haven buying demand for gold.

On the 10th local time, the Israeli negotiating delegation arrived in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and will hold talks with representatives from Qatar, Egypt, and the United States on the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of detainees. According to reports, the Israeli negotiating delegation is led by David Bania, the head of the Israeli Intelligence and Secret Service (Mossad), Ronan Bar, the director of the Israeli National Security Agency (Sinbet), and Israeli Defense Force negotiator Nizan Alon. They will hold four party talks with Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed, CIA Director Burns, and Egyptian Intelligence Agency Director Kamal. Afterwards, the mediating party will convey the results of the talks to the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas).

Hezbollah leader Nasrallah stated on the 10th that if a ceasefire agreement is reached in the Gaza Strip, the organization will cease hostilities with Israel "without discussion.". According to Lighthouse Television, a subsidiary of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Nasrallah gave a video speech at an event that day, stating that Hamas is negotiating with Israel in the name of various resistance factions, and Hezbollah supports any decision made by Hamas regarding negotiations with Israel. Israeli Defense Minister Galant stated on the 7th that even if Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire agreement, the Israeli military's combat with Hezbollah in Lebanon will continue

On the positive side, the World Gold Council stated on Tuesday that due to increased holdings of funds listed in Europe and Asia, global physical gold exchange traded funds experienced inflows for the second consecutive month in June.

Technically speaking, at the daily level, gold prices are currently in a high volatility trend. After being blocked near the Bollinger Bands, a "swallow short" candlestick combination was recorded. On Wednesday, a long upward shadow candlestick indicated strong resistance above, increasing the risk of short-term gold price volatility falling. The initial support is around the 10 day moving average of 2355.64, with strong support around the Bollinger Bands middle track of 2336.50. If this support is missed, it will increase the bearish signal for the future.

However, the MACD golden cross signal is still present. If the gold price strongly breaks through the resistance around 2387.83 on the Bollinger Line, it is expected to launch a new round of upward movement, with further resistance referring to the 2400 level, and even potentially impacting the historical high near 2449.88.