On Monday, spot gold prices fell slightly, at $2404.36 per ounce, a decrease of 0.29%. US gold futures also did not show weakness, falling 0.48% to $2409.0. The fluctuation of gold prices is not unrelated to the strength of the US dollar.

The dual impact of political risks and economic data

The uncertainty of political risks also plays an important role in the gold market. After the attack on Trump, market expectations for his victory in the November election have risen, undoubtedly bringing new uncertainty to the market. Matt Simpson, Senior Analyst at City Index, pointed out that although Trump's victory or defeat will not directly affect gold prices, if he provokes a trade dispute, the safe haven value of gold will be highlighted.

In addition, the upcoming US economic data this week, including June retail sales, industrial production, and weekly unemployment claims, will provide important clues to the market about the trajectory of US interest rates. Ilya Spivak, Global Macro Head at Tastylive, emphasized that if retail sales data is poor, it will enhance market expectations for interest rate cuts, which is undoubtedly a major positive for the gold market.

The impact of Federal Reserve policy expectations

The policy direction of the Federal Reserve has always been a key factor affecting the gold market. According to data from CME FedWatch Tool, the market's expectation for a US rate cut in September is as high as 93%. The speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the successive statements of Federal Reserve officials will become the focus of market attention.

Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance of Gold Price Trends

From a technical perspective, the gold price is currently in a bullish trend. FXStreet senior analyst Dhwani Mehta pointed out that gold prices have maintained a downward trend near the $2400/ounce mark, but the daily chart shows that the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish. RSI remains above 50, providing upward momentum for gold prices. On the 21st, the SMA surpassed the 50 day SMA, confirming a bullish crossover and providing support for further upward movement in gold prices.

However, in order for gold prices to challenge the record high of $2450 per ounce, they must first break through the key resistance level of $2425 per ounce. If we can continue to break through, it will open the door to $2500 per ounce. On the contrary, if the gold price rebounds, $2391/ounce and $2371/ounce will be short-term support points.

Overall, the gold market is operating in a complex environment where multiple factors are intertwined. The strength of the US dollar, the uncertainty of political risks, the upcoming release of economic data, and the policy expectations of the Federal Reserve are all affecting the trend of gold prices.