On Friday (July 19th) morning trading in the Asian market, spot gold slightly weakened and is currently trading around $2428.13 per ounce. Although the Federal Reserve is expected to continue providing support for gold prices in September, the rebound of the US dollar index from the past four months has put pressure on gold prices. Spot gold fell 0.55% on Thursday, closing at $2445.07 per ounce, marking two consecutive trading days of decline and continuing to move away from the historical high set on Wednesday. Investors need to be alert to the risk of short-term volatility and peak building in gold prices.

Russell Shor, a senior market expert at Tradu, said, "Analysts expect that precious metals will experience a long-term upward trend driven by the Federal Reserve's readiness to cut interest rates, and the market believes that inflation has been brought under control

Shor said that geopolitical instability and central bank demand have also created positive medium - to long-term prospects for gold.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the market believes there is a 98% chance that the United States will cut interest rates in September. In a low interest rate environment, the attractiveness of non yielding gold is often highlighted.

The data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week increased more than expected, but there was no substantial change in the labor market.

At the same time, as expected, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and its Managing Director Christine Lagarde stated that the action in September is "not yet determined".

According to data from the World Gold Council, global physical gold exchange traded funds recorded inflows for the second consecutive month in June.

Boosted by a surge in new orders, the expansion of manufacturing activity in the mid Atlantic region of the United States in July exceeded expectations. This provided support for the US dollar and suppressed gold prices. The US dollar index rose 0.44% on Thursday, recovering most of Wednesday's losses and closing at 104.19. From a technical perspective, the daily chart of the US dollar index formed a "swallowing" bullish bottom signal, indicating that the US dollar index is expected to continue to fluctuate and rebound in the short term, which may further suppress the trend of gold prices..

In terms of geopolitical situation, market expectations for a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East have increased, slightly suppressing the demand for gold.

There is relatively little economic data on this trading day, but there will still be several Fed officials giving speeches, and investors need to continue to pay attention. In addition, pay attention to the relevant news of the US election.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States increased last week, with disruptions caused by summer maintenance at car factories and Hurricane Beryl

The increase in initial jobless claims in the United States last week exceeded expectations, but with temporary shutdowns in car factories and disruptions caused by Hurricane Berrier, this does not necessarily mean a substantial change in the labor market.

However, the weekly unemployment benefits report released by the Department of Labor on Thursday suggests that compared to last year, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. The number of unemployed people in the first week of July reached the highest level in two and a half years, which is in line with the recent increase in unemployment rate.

The loosening of the labor market and easing inflation may push the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September, and financial markets also believe that further rate cuts will occur in November and December.

To dispel the noise in the data and take a step back, the number of unemployment claims has been on the rise since the beginning of this year, "said Nancy Vanden Houten, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics. We believe that the increase in the number of people so far is in line with the cooling of the labor market, which is characterized more by a slowdown in recruitment pace rather than an increase in layoffs.

The US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that as of the week ending July 13th, the number of initial state unemployment claims increased by 20000 to 243000 after seasonal adjustment. Economists previously predicted 230000 people.

The number of initial jobless claims has rebounded to a 10 month high reached in early June, and has precisely touched the high-end range of 194000 to 243000 people this year. Due to difficulties in adjusting data before and after holidays (such as Independence Day in the United States), the number of initial jobless claims decreased in the previous week.

In addition, car manufacturers usually close their assembly plants within the week starting from July 4th to adjust equipment for producing new car models. But the downtime of each manufacturer is different, which may affect the model used by the government to eliminate seasonal fluctuations in the data. Compared to previous years, this year's factory shutdowns are also more concentrated.

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits increased from July to the first half of August last year, but the trend completely reversed by early September.

Last week, the number of unadjusted initial jobless claims increased by 36824 to 279032. The number of applicants in Texas has increased significantly by 11537, possibly due to the impact of Hurricane Berrier. The number of applicants in California has increased by 6917.

However, factory employment may stabilize in the coming months. A survey conducted by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve on Thursday showed that manufacturing activity in the mid Atlantic region accelerated in July as new orders surged. Manufacturing employment also saw its first increase in nine months.

This set of unemployment benefit data is within the survey period of the government's investigation of enterprises and institutions for the non farm employment section in the July employment report. Between the survey period in June and July, there was a slight increase in the number of applicants.

The number of renewed unemployment benefits to be announced next week will better reflect the labor market situation in July.

As of the week ending July 6th, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits increased by 20000, reaching 1.867 million after seasonal adjustment, the highest level since November 2021.

San Francisco Fed President Daley: Price stability has not yet been achieved

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Thursday that before calling for a rate cut, she hopes to be more confident that inflation is returning to the Fed's 2% target.

We haven't achieved price stability yet, "Daley said at an event at the Dallas Federal Reserve. The recent data is indeed good, but even though the upcoming inflation data is positive, the data from earlier this year was also good. However, we have not yet achieved the goal of sustainably returning inflation to 2%, "she said.

Daley said that monetary policy is currently in a state of equilibrium.

She said, 'There is a risk in taking early action to normalize interest rates, as it could keep inflation below or above our target; there is also a risk of holding back for too long, as the labor market may shake.'.

Daley reminded to be patient about the prospect of interest rate cuts, stating that Fed officials must "balance the cost of quick action and mistakes" and avoid policy mistakes, which is very important.

The outside world expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, but some people say that given the cooling of price pressures, the Fed should take action at its July meeting.

ECB remains on hold as expected, Lagarde says' uncertain 'on how to act in September

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as expected on Thursday, but stated that it is "uncertain" how it will act in September and lowered its expectations for the eurozone economic outlook, predicting that inflation will continue to decline.

The ECB lowered interest rates from a record high last month, which some policymakers believe was too hasty given the stagnant trend of slowing inflation. The European Central Bank may adopt a more cautious attitude towards taking follow-up actions.

However, some signs support investors' bets on another interest rate cut in September. Including President Lagarde's statement that the risk of economic growth is "skewed downwards" - a departure from her previous statement that risk is balanced at least in the short term.

Morgan Stanley analyst Greg Fuzesi said, "Our conclusion is that a rate cut in September is still very likely

Lagarde stated that the economic growth in the second quarter may have slowed down, with poor investment activity and industrial output, indicating weak economic expansion in the future.

This statement reinforces people's expectations that weak economic activity will continue to suppress price pressure in the economy, allowing the European Central Bank to further cut interest rates, perhaps once every quarter.

However, the European Central Bank has been repeatedly criticized for providing overly specific guidance, so this time, Lagarde stated that the ECB will not promise any interest rate path in advance and will make decisions based on data.

Lagarde said, 'Therefore, there is still uncertainty about the issues in September and how we will act in September,' and she did not repeat her statement after the June interest rate cut that it is now 'very likely' that monetary policy is reversing.

Some people also see her remarks on the salary issue as a small hint of further policy relaxation.

Lagarde stated that although wage growth remains high, weak economic activity and the finalized wage agreement indicate a slowdown in future growth, and it is expected that income growth next year will meet the European Central Bank's inflation target.

The market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates nearly twice for the rest of this year and slightly more than five times by the end of next year, and no policy maker has publicly questioned this view for weeks.

A key issue regarding providing specific guidance is that the European Central Bank's policy meeting on September 12th is still far away, and before that, there will be numerous economic data released.

Biden considering withdrawal, Trump preparing to accept candidate nomination

A source said that US President Biden is seriously considering giving up running for re-election on behalf of the Democratic Party, while Trump is preparing to accept the Republican presidential nomination. His aides said he will give an unusual reflective speech.

The fates of the two candidates seemed to have taken opposite paths on Thursday.

After being infected with COVID-19, the 81 year old Biden was quarantined in his home in Delaware. At the same time, facing the growing opposition within the Democratic Party, they urged Biden to stand aside to avoid an overwhelming defeat. The doctor said his symptoms are mild.

After the attempted assassination at a rally in Pennsylvania, 78 year old Trump was immersed in the praise of the Milwaukee Republican National Convention for the entire week.

Trump is scheduled to give a speech accepting the nomination at 10 pm Eastern Time on Thursday (10:00 pm Beijing Time on Friday), and he will have the opportunity to present his vision for a second White House term to the national television audience during prime time.

After performing poorly in the debate with Trump on June 27th, Biden faced increasing pressure from heavyweight figures within the party to relinquish his position as presidential candidate. According to a White House source familiar with the situation, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also told Biden that he couldn't win the election.

After Biden insisted that he would continue to run for several weeks, sources familiar with the situation said that he is now taking the call for him to step down seriously, and several Democratic officials believe that withdrawing from the election is a matter of time.

According to multiple news agencies, Democratic leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer of both houses of Congress have spoken frankly to Biden that he will not only lose the presidency, but also jeopardize the Democratic Party's efforts to win back the House of Representatives.

According to polls, four out of the seven most competitive states are becoming increasingly out of reach for Biden. At the same time, the Trump team stated that they believe they are currently competitive in states such as Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia that lean towards the Democratic Party. A senior campaign advisor who declined to be named told reporters, 'We are expanding our territory.'. "

So far, only 20 out of 264 Democratic congressmen have publicly called for Biden to withdraw after the election debate, while more have privately expressed their concerns. This debate raises questions about whether Biden has the ability to win, and if he is elected, whether he has the ability to continue high-intensity work for four more years.

Some lawmakers suggest that Biden may now have a more open attitude towards withdrawing from the election.

The Washington Post reported, citing anonymous sources, that former President Obama had told others that Biden should reconsider his candidacy.

Sources say Israeli negotiating team is drafting new terms for ceasefire agreement

On July 18th local time, Israeli sources reported that after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu proposed a new Gaza ceasefire and personnel exchange agreement negotiation "red line", the Israeli team responsible for indirect negotiations with the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) has been drafting a new draft agreement text to meet Netanyahu's demands, namely, to maintain Israel's control over the "Philadelphia Corridor" and the Gaza side of the Gaza Strip's border with Egypt in the first phase of the comprehensive ceasefire agreement, and to prevent Gaza militants from returning to northern Gaza.

It is reported that the negotiation team led by David Barnier, the head of Israel's intelligence and intelligence agency (Mossad), will not resume the relevant negotiation process in Qatar until the new draft text is approved by Netanyahu and the Israeli Council of Ministers. The new terms will only be handed over to mediators such as the United States, Qatar, and Egypt after being approved by Israel, and then to Hamas.

Israeli sources have stated that some of the new terms are not within the scope of the agreement draft previously proposed by Israel. The negotiating team believes that the new text "will break the negotiation deadlock," but negotiations with Hamas to finalize the details of the agreement will still take several weeks.

technical analysis

From the daily chart, the gold price has fallen for two consecutive trading days and recorded a negative candlestick, indicating strong selling pressure above. KDJ has formed a dead cross again, and the gold price has fallen below the 2450 level. The short-term gold price is facing further downside risks. The initial support refers to the high point around 2424.42 on July 11, and the 10 day moving average support is around 2414.52. If it falls below this level, it will increase the short-term bearish signal, further supporting the reference 2400 level and the high point around 2392.82 on July 5.

If the gold price can remain above the 10 day moving average of 2414.52, it will provide an opportunity for future bulls to further fluctuate and attack.

Daily chart of spot gold