On Friday (November 15th), during the closing session of the Asian session, COMEX gold traded around $2561.30, and on a fundamental level, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States yesterday was lower than expected,

At the same time, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve stated that he is not in a hurry to continue cutting interest rates, which has accelerated the cooling of expectations for the Fed's December rate cut. The hawkish stance supports the continued strength of the US dollar, putting pressure on gold prices to rebound,

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping current interest rates unchanged until December is 41.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 58.7%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut the day before is 82.5%,

It is worth noting that the US dollar index is currently close to its October 2023 high point. In the short term, be cautious of rising and falling, and coupled with oversold gold daily, there is a possibility of oversold correction.

Focus on the direction selection after the landing of US retail data within the day.

From a technical perspective, COMEX's daily gold level is accelerating downward, but there is no significant support of breaking through the physical level to support $2540. At the same time, it closed with a long shadow yesterday,

If the consolidation does not break through yesterday's low point, there is a possibility of rebound, at least the short-term downward space is in place, and we need to wait for the moving average to move downwards and the direction of the indicator to be adjusted,

The daily long short divide is $2540, with upward rebound pressure of $2600.

COMEX Gold Daily Chart

At the 4-hour level, the moving average is accelerating its downward trend, but there are signs of divergence in the KDJ indicator. The short-term downward space is limited, and waiting for a rebound is the main trend,

If it stabilizes at $2580 in 4 hours, it is expected to further rebound and test the integer level of $2600, supporting $2540 below.

COMEX Gold 4-hour chart