The price of gold has fallen below $2400 per ounce! Market turning point or temporary correction?

2024-07-19 2714

In Friday's market trading, the gold price experienced a significant correction, falling below the important psychological barrier of $2400 per ounce. At present, gold is trading at $2395.97 per ounce, with a intraday drop of about $50, a decrease of 2.01%.

This article will delve into the fundamental, technical, and informational factors behind this phenomenon, as well as their potential impact on future market trends.

On the news front, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September is as high as 98%, which to some extent supports the price of gold. The recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have also strengthened market confidence in the return of inflation to target. However, Ricardo Evangelista, a senior analyst at ActivTrades, pointed out that if the US GDP data to be released next week shows a slowdown in economic activity, gold prices may be boosted and may rebound to recent highs.

The slight strengthening of the US dollar has put direct pressure on gold. The rise in the value of the US dollar often puts pressure on the price of gold denominated in US dollars. In addition, the rise in the yield of 10-year US treasury bond bonds also had a negative impact on gold prices. In a low interest rate environment, the attractiveness of gold as a non yielding asset usually increases, but when bond yields rise, investors may turn to the bond market, thereby reducing demand for gold.

From a technical perspective, the pullback in gold prices may be seen as a healthy adjustment in the market. After a period of strong gains, some investors choose to lock in profits around the key level of $2400, which is a common behavior among market participants.

However, Zain Vawda, a market analyst at OANDA MarketPulse, believes that if gold prices fail to hold at $2400 by the close, the difficulty of reaching $2500 in the short term will increase. However, if the US economic data performs poorly or market expectations for Trump's victory increase, gold prices may receive further impetus.

Political factors cannot be ignored either. Evangelista mentioned that if traders believe that US presidential candidate Trump will win the November election, his inclination towards a weak dollar may prompt him to take action to weaken the dollar, thereby affecting the gold market.

In summary, the price of gold falling below $2400 can be seen as a comprehensive response of the market to multiple factors. Although gold prices are under pressure in the short term, in the long run, a low interest rate environment, potential economic slowdown, and political uncertainty may provide support for gold.

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