AUD/USD rebound may be limited, market pays attention to Reserve Bank of Australia's November minutes
The Australian dollar showed a strong trend against the US dollar in the early Asian market on November 18th. However, foreign exchange analyst Lallalit Srijandorn believes that the upward potential of the AUD/USD may be limited due to the cautious statements of Federal Reserve officials and strong US economic data boosting the overall performance of the US dollar.
The data released by the Bureau of Statistics of the US Department of Commerce last week showed that the growth rate of US retail sales in October slightly exceeded expectations. Retail sales increased by 0.4% month on month, although the previous data was revised up from 0.4% to 0.8%, it still exceeded the market expectation of 0.3%.
As a result, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December have cooled down. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated last week that "the economy has not sent a signal that we urgently need to cut interest rates. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Federal Reserve Observation Tool, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting to be close to 60%.
In terms of the Australian dollar, the hawkish remarks made by Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Brock may provide some support for the Australian dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia reiterated that the committee is open to any policy adjustments and stated that vigilance is needed to address the risk of rising inflation. Investors will pay attention to the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting scheduled to be released on November 19th.
AUD/USD daily chart
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