On Monday (November 18th) during the European trading session, WTI crude oil fell to $66.53 per barrel at one point before rebounding. The intraday price was $67.36 per barrel, an increase of 0.66%.

Geopolitical tensions drive up oil prices

The escalating tension between Russia and Ukraine has supported oil prices. Last weekend, the administration led by US President Biden approved Ukraine's use of American made weapons to strike targets within Russian territory, marking a significant shift in US policy. Although this decision aims to enhance Ukraine's capabilities, analysts warn that it may trigger further instability.

Russia has carried out its largest airstrike on Ukraine in three months, targeting critical infrastructure. In addition, production disruptions at three Russian refineries have exacerbated global supply concerns due to rising crude oil prices and export restrictions.

OPEC+production cuts and global surplus increase bearish pressure

Last week, Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices both fell by over 3%, reflecting the pessimistic sentiment of the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicting a global oil surplus of 1 million barrels per day by 2025.

Although OPEC+continues to reduce production, the market prospect of oversupply still exists. In the United States, the number of drilling platforms announced by Baker Hughes has dropped to 478, the lowest level since mid July.

Oil price forecast: pessimistic outlook

Although geopolitical risks may provide temporary support, the market outlook remains bearish due to weakened demand signals and the IEA's earnings forecast. Traders should be prepared for the ongoing downward pressure in the near future.

technical analysis

WTI Crude Oil 4-hour Chart

WTI crude oil prices are showing a bearish trend, attempting to restore today's expected bearish trend, waiting to test $65.50, which is the next major target.

The bearish trend scenario will remain and fluctuate within the bearish channel. The key to maintaining a bearish trend is to keep the price below $68.64. The expected trading range for today is between the support level of $65.60 and the resistance level of $68.60.