On Wednesday (November 20th Beijing time), spot gold rose nearly 2%, trading near 2634.30, continuing the previous trading day's upward trend and climbing for the third consecutive trading day. The escalating tension between Russia and Ukraine has triggered a rush to buy safe haven assets, while investors are waiting for key signals from the Federal Reserve's interest rate plan; Crude oil rose slightly, trading around $69.29 per barrel, as geopolitical tensions supported oil prices. However, the partial resumption of production at the Johan Sverdrup oil field in Norway and Iran's proposal to halt the expansion of its uranium stockpile with a concentration of 60% have limited the increase in oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.28% to 43268.94 points. The S&P 500 index rose 0.40% to 5916.98 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.04% to 18987.47 points.

Key focus for the day: European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a welcome speech at the European Central Bank's 2024 Financial Stability and Macro Prudential Policy Meeting, with UK retail data and US EIA data.

equity market

The NASDAQ index rose more than 1% on Tuesday, and the S&P 500 index also closed higher. As investors eagerly awaited Nvidia's financial report this week, technology stocks led the way in gains; At the same time, Wal Mart's stock price climbed after it raised its financial forecast.

The three major stock indexes all fell at the opening, with a maximum drop of about 0.6%, as Russian President Putin lowered the threshold for launching a nuclear strike in response to a wider range of conventional attacks. Moscow claimed that Ukraine had used American made long-range missiles to attack the Russian hinterland. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Moscow will do everything possible to prevent a nuclear war, leading to a narrowing of the stock market's decline.

After Wednesday's close, chip manufacturer Nvidia's stock price rose 4.9% to $147.01, providing the greatest boost to the three major stock indices. Technology stocks climbed 1.2%, ranking among the top rising sectors in the S&P 500 index. Strategists say that the market has high expectations for Nvidia, which has driven the rise of AI related stocks. Timothy Chubb, Chief Investment Officer of Girard, a subsidiary of Univest Wealth, said, "The biggest focus today is to remain cautious about the situation in Ukraine. Investors are mainly seeking refuge in some large cap stocks, which may come as a surprise before Nvidia's financial report, but these stocks have high liquidity

Wal Mart shares rose 3% to $86.60, a record closing high, after the retailer raised its annual sales and profit forecasts for the third time in a row. Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist of LPL Financial, said: "Wal Mart has issued optimistic performance guidance. An important part of the market is that Wal Mart says that more customers are buying goods in the high profit category, which has always been concerned."

Supermicro surged 31.2% after the artificial intelligence server manufacturer appointed BDO USA as its new accounting firm and stated that it had submitted a plan to Nasdaq to avoid delisting.

Goldman Sachs strategists predict that by the end of 2025, the S&P 500 index will reach 6500 points, which makes the market more optimistic. Investors are digesting the cabinet candidates of President elect Trump. Trump announced on Tuesday that he has selected renowned physician Mehmet Oz to serve as the administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in the United States. Trump nominated Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce and directly responsible for the Office of the United States Trade Representative.

gold market

Gold prices rose for the second consecutive trading day on Tuesday, reaching a new high for the week, as the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine sparked a rush to safe haven assets, while investors were waiting for key signals from the Federal Reserve's interest rate plan. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2628.76 per ounce, reaching its highest level since November 11th. US gold futures closed 0.6% higher at $2631 per ounce.

Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities, said, "We believe that after Ukraine launched its first long-range missile attack on Russian territory, overnight reports of Russia changing its nuclear theory led to some safe haven funds flowing into gold

Several Federal Reserve officials will give speeches this week, which may provide further insights into the path of interest rate cuts. Traders currently believe that there is a 63% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December.

The pullback of the US dollar also provides support for gold prices. The US dollar rebounded strongly to a one-year high last week, stimulated by Trump's trading. The weakening of the US dollar makes gold more attractive to buyers of other currencies. Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.1% to $31.17, hitting a new high for the next week. Platinum rose 0.5% to $971.66.

Oil market

Oil prices closed slightly higher on Tuesday due to signs of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which made investors cautious. However, the partial resumption of production at the Johan Sverdrup oil field in Norway limited the increase in oil prices. US crude oil futures rose 0.3% to close at $69.39 per barrel. Moscow announced that Ukraine used US ATACMS missiles for the first time to attack Russian territory on Tuesday. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov called the attack an escalation by Western countries. Russian President Putin has lowered the threshold for a possible nuclear strike.

Early morning API data shows that crude oil inventories increased by 4.75 million barrels last week. Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.48 million barrels. The estimated capacity utilization rate of the refinery has increased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous week's 91.4%.

Fujitomi Securities analyst Toshitaka Tazawa said, "After the escalation of the situation over the weekend, investors are cautious about the direction of the Russia Ukraine war." Market observers pointed out that there are signs that China, the largest crude oil importer, has increased its crude oil procurement volume. StoneX energy analyst Alex Hodes cited data from ship tracking agency Kpler, stating that China's crude oil imports in November are expected to reach or approach historical highs.

So far this year, China's import volume has dragged down oil prices, causing Brent crude oil futures prices to fall by 20% from their high of $92 per barrel in April. China's crude oil imports in October decreased year-on-year for the sixth consecutive month.

Equinor has resumed partial production at the Johan Sverdrup oil field in the North Sea, which has limited the upward trend of oil prices. The oil field is the largest in Western Europe, and the day before, a power outage at the field caused oil prices to soar by 3%.

According to a confidential report by the United Nations nuclear watchdog, Iran has proposed to halt the expansion of its uranium stockpile, which has reached an enrichment level of 60% (nearly 90% of weapon grade), putting pressure on oil prices.

foreign exchange market

The US dollar index rose on Tuesday, hitting a high of 106.63 during trading. Earlier, safe haven currencies such as the US dollar, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen initially received a boost after Russia announced that it would lower the threshold for nuclear strikes, but this boost weakened after comments from Russian and US officials.

Moscow stated that Ukraine has used US ATACMS missiles to attack Russian territory for the first time, and Russia views this attack as a significant escalation in the 1000th enemy strike of the war. A few days before Putin approved the modification of Russia's nuclear theory, two US officials and a source familiar with the decision announced on Sunday that the Biden administration would allow Ukraine to use US made weapons to strike deep within Russian territory.

After Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that the country would "do everything possible" to avoid a nuclear war and endorsed Germany's decision on Monday not to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine, calling it a "responsible position," the initial market reaction weakened. In addition, the United States has stated that it has not seen any reason to adjust its nuclear posture in response.

Erik Bregar, Director of Foreign Exchange and Precious Metals Risk Management at Silver Gold Bull in Toronto, said, "After Lavrov's remarks, we saw a reversal, and the United States will not respond to this change in Russia's nuclear theory, which has also played a certain role in calming market sentiment. The over leveraged long positions and geopolitical risks that have flooded in for three weeks have not disappeared, and this is still a crazy and dangerous world

The USD/JPY remained unchanged at 154.68, while the EUR/JPY fell to a six week low of 161.50 before closing down 0.11% to 163.74. Since early October, the US dollar has risen by 9% against the Japanese yen, reaching a peak of 156.74. Last week, it broke through the 156 level for the first time since July and raised the possibility that Japanese authorities may once again support the yen.

USD/CHF rose 0.02% to 0.883, after falling as much as 0.32% within the day. The Russian ruble fell 0.83% to 100.571 rubles per US dollar. The official exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar has fallen below 100 for the first time since October 2023.

Due to increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may slow down its interest rate cuts and concerns that the policies of incoming US President Trump may reignite inflation, the US dollar index has been rebounding. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the current market probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting is 59.1%, lower than 76.8% a month ago.

Kansas City Fed President Schmid said it is still uncertain how much interest rates will fall, but the Fed's recent rate cuts indicate that they believe inflation is moving towards their 2% target. It is expected that the European Central Bank will continue to cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth in the region.

In the latest comments from European Central Bank decision-makers, Panetta stated that the central bank should lower interest rates so that they no longer suppress economic growth and can even stimulate it, and provide more guidance when the impact of the pandemic weakens and inflation tends to normal.

Prior to Panetta's remarks, two decision-makers from the European Central Bank stated on Monday that they were more concerned about the expected damage to economic growth from the new US trade tariffs than their impact on inflation.

international news 

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 59.1%

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping current interest rates unchanged until December is 40.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 59.1%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until January next year is 30.4%, the probability of reducing interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively is 54.5%, and the probability of reducing interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 15.2%.

Trump nominates Lutnik as Secretary of Commerce

US President elect Trump announced on Tuesday that he will nominate Howard Lutnik, CEO of talent agency Cantor Fitzgerald, as Secretary of Commerce. Trump stated that Lutnik will also be directly responsible for the Office of the United States Trade Representative. Lutnik is a suburban resident of Long Island, New York, with a background in trade and real estate. He has been one of Trump's main supporters on Wall Street, hosting fundraising events and promoting his policies in the media during Trump's campaign. If approved by the Senate, Lutnik will be responsible for expanding US economic growth and promoting domestic industries. He may also help maintain and expand the relationship between the government and the business community. The Department of Commerce and other agencies will play a central role in implementing the President elect's proposal to impose tariffs on US imports.

Federal Reserve's Schmid: It is unknown how low interest rates may fall

The Federal Reserve's Schmid said on Tuesday that it is still unknown how low interest rates may fall, and the rate cut is a recognition of the Fed's confidence in the return of inflation to its 2% target. A larger fiscal deficit will not trigger inflation, as the Federal Reserve will take precautions, although this may mean higher interest rates. Interest rates are still somewhat restrictive, but not too strict. If the upcoming tariffs and immigration policies affect employment and inflation, they will be related to the Federal Reserve. The struggle against inflation is not yet over.

Indonesia officially cancels Jakarta's capital status

On the 19th, the Indonesian parliament passed a bill officially revoking Jakarta's status as the capital and designating it as a special zone. Jakarta's status is no longer that of a capital, but a special district. We have relocated the capital to Nusantara, "said Deputy Speaker of the Indonesian Parliament, Kadir, after a plenary session

European Investment Bank announces 14.5 million euros to support Ukraine's infrastructure reconstruction

The European Investment Bank said on the 19th local time that 1000 days after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the European Investment Bank reiterated its support for Ukraine and provided 14.5 million euros for the reconstruction of key infrastructure in Ukraine.

International Atomic Energy Agency: Iran agrees to halt production of uranium near weapon grade concentration

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has agreed to stop producing uranium at concentrations close to weapon grade. According to personnel from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has reached an agreement with the agency to allow experienced inspectors to conduct inspections. Iran has begun implementing measures aimed at preventing an increase in its inventory, and engineers have taken necessary preliminary measures to limit production.

Domestic news

Han Wenxiu from the Central Financial Office: Implementing the comprehensive lifting of foreign investment access restrictions in the manufacturing industry

Han Wenxiu, the deputy director in charge of daily work of the Central Financial Office, wrote in the Study Times that the high-level opening-up system and mechanism should be improved. In terms of institutional openness, it is necessary to actively connect with international high standard economic and trade rules, and achieve compatibility in rules, regulations, management, and standards in areas such as property rights protection, industrial subsidies, environmental standards, labor protection, government procurement, e-commerce, and finance. In terms of foreign investment and foreign trade, it is necessary to strengthen the coordination of trade policies and fiscal, taxation, financial and industrial policies, implement measures to completely eliminate restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector, and promote the orderly expansion of opening up in telecommunications, the Internet, education, culture, medical care and other fields.

The Blue Book on Sustainable Development in China was released at the China Corner of the Baku Climate Conference

The Blue Book of Sustainable Development: China's Sustainable Development Evaluation Report (2024) was released on the afternoon of the 19th at the China Corner of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) held in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, on the theme of "New Practices of China's Sustainable Development towards Carbon Neutrality". The Blue Book, edited by the China Center for International Economic Exchange and the Earth Research Institute of Columbia University, released the 2024 China Sustainable Development Comprehensive Index, as well as the evaluation results of sustainable development effectiveness in various provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, and major cities in China. The report points out that since the evaluation was conducted, the comprehensive index of sustainable development in China has steadily improved for seven consecutive years, with a cumulative increase of 46.8%. The five individual indicators of economic development, social livelihood, resource and environment, consumption and emissions, and governance and protection have all maintained an upward trend. China is gradually forming an urban spatial pattern that can effectively support the green and low-carbon transformation and high-quality development of the economy and society. After comprehensive evaluation, cities such as Zhuhai, Qingdao, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi, Changsha, and Hefei have shown better comprehensive sustainable development capabilities. The report points out that in the future, China will take carbon peak and carbon neutrality as the leading factor, accelerate the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, improve the mechanism of green and low-carbon development, and strive to promote the modernization of harmonious coexistence between man and nature, continuously providing Chinese solutions for global sustainable development.