As the US dollar gave up some of its recent gains, the Australian and New Zealand dollars held steady on Wednesday (November 20th), having previously hit a new weekly high and expected to continue their upward trend into the fourth trading day.

The market is waiting for President elect Trump to choose who to be Treasury Secretary, and the likelihood of this candidate advancing Trump's comprehensive tariff and tax proposals. The rise of the US dollar has been put on hold.

The Australian dollar continues to receive some support from a stable interest rate outlook, as the minutes from the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia showed that the bank remains vigilant about the risk of inflation rising.

Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report, "Compared to macro data and global peers, the language of the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to be hawkish, but we expect to shift towards a dovish stance in future communications." "We continue to predict the first interest rate cut in February, but it should be noted that this is a close prediction as decision-making is highly dependent on data

The market suggests that there is only a 37% chance of lowering the cash rate to 4.35% in February, a 58% chance in April, and a 25 basis point rate cut will not be fully accepted by the market until May.

The next important economic data is the October CPI, which will be released on November 27th. After a significant year-on-year drop to 2.1% in September, it is expected to decline again.

In September, the average measurement of core inflation slowed down to 3.2%, and it may reach the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2% -3% range in October.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold a meeting next week, and investors believe that the bank will lower the 4.75% cash rate by 50 basis points, making it lower than the Australian rate.

The market also expects an 84% chance of the bank cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points in February, and the interest rate will approach 3.25% by the end of next year.