On Thursday (November 21), spot gold trading was around 2649.27. Regarding geopolitical hedging, it still supports gold prices. Russia has taken a "mirror style" measure against countries that freeze Russian assets, which may further exacerbate geopolitical tensions and boost gold prices during the day. US crude oil slightly rose, trading at $9.07 per barrel. Although the increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week exceeded expectations and dragged down oil prices, geopolitical tensions have limited the decline in oil prices, and intraday oil prices may be more affected by geopolitical factors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.32% on Wednesday at 43408.47 points; The S&P 500 index rose 0.00% to 5917.11 points; The Nasdaq index fell 0.11% to 18966.14 points.
Key focus for the day: initial jobless claims data from the United States, initial consumer confidence index for the Eurozone in November, speeches by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Australian Federal Reserve President Brock.
US shares
The NASDAQ index of the US stock market closed lower on Wednesday, with the strong gains of the previous trading day temporarily halted. Investors are concerned about the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the weak performance of the Target, while waiting for the super large cap company Nvidia to announce its financial report after the close.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index rose in the late trading session, with the Dow Jones closing higher and the S&P closing flat. Earlier in the trading session, the stock market fell after reports that Ukraine had launched the British "Storm Shadow" long-range missile into Russian territory. On Tuesday, Ukraine launched American made ATACMS missiles at Russia, and Russia announced a reduction in the threshold for nuclear action.
The Wall Street Fear Index surged to 18.79, then fell back to 17.24, still at its highest level since the US presidential election on November 5th. D. James Regan, Research Director at Davidson Wealth Management, said, "After strong gains in growth and technology stocks yesterday, the market has become more defensive today. Perhaps it was a conservative view before Nvidia's financial report was released, or a broad response to the report of Target, which serves as a consumer barometer. In addition, tensions between Ukraine and Russia, as well as the withdrawal of the US embassy, have also raised more geopolitical concerns
Artificial intelligence chip manufacturer Nvidia fell 0.76% during regular trading hours and further declined after releasing its financial report after hours. The company's fourth quarter revenue forecast was slightly higher than expected, but it did not meet the high expectations of some investors. During regular trading hours, Nvidia dragged down the information technology sector by 0.23% and the tech powerhouse Nasdaq index by 0.11%. Target plummeted 21.4% after the retailer expected comparable sales and profits for the holiday quarter to be lower than Wall Street's expectations, and its third quarter performance also fell short of expectations. Consumer stocks were the sector with the largest decline, dropping 0.57%. Growth stocks such as Tesla and Amazon also fell by 1.15% and 0.85% respectively.
According to data from Bank of America Global Research, Nvidia's stock price has nearly doubled this year, with approximately 20% of the S&P 500 index's returns over the past 12 months attributed to Nvidia. Bill Merz, Head of Capital Markets Research at Bank of America Asset Management Group, states that we are beginning to see comments from large companies deploying funds in the fields of artificial intelligence and technology spending, discussing these expenditures
How to convert into instances of higher income or cost savings. This is a good sign for companies such as NVIDIA that are leading in the field of artificial intelligence technology.
After the US stock market closed, Nvidia announced its third quarter financial report, which showed a revenue of $35.1 billion for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, compared to $18.12 billion in the same period last year, and the market expectation was $33 billion. The third base point data center business revenue for fiscal year 2025 was $30.8 billion, compared to $26.3 billion in the previous quarter, a year-on-year increase of 112%. The gaming business revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 is 3.3 billion US dollars. Expected revenue for the fourth quarter is $37.5 billion, with a market expectation of $37 billion. The Hopper and Blackwell systems are facing certain supply constraints, and it is expected that demand for Blackwell will exceed supply in several quarters of the 2026 fiscal year. Nvidia did not provide Blackwell's revenue guidance in its financial report.
Under the influence of strong economic data and persistent signs of inflation, traders have increased their bets on the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at its December meeting.
gold market
Gold prices rose for the third consecutive trading day on Wednesday, reaching a new high for the week. The escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine has intensified geopolitical concerns, and investors are seeking safe haven. Spot gold was reported at $2647.43 per ounce, up 0.6%, reaching its highest level since November 11th earlier in the session. US futures closed up 0.8%, with a settlement price of $2651.70. Geopolitical tensions have escalated, and Russian President Putin has lowered the threshold for using nuclear strikes to respond to broader conventional attacks. Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, said, "Obviously, this has driven safe haven interest. I have indeed seen the re emergence of inverse correlation in recent weeks and believe that the strengthening of the US dollar is a negative factor for the future of gold
The rebound of the US dollar, after three consecutive days of decline, has revived the "Trump trade" rally, limiting the rise of gold denominated in US dollars and increasing costs for overseas buyers. Last week, as the US dollar index hit a one-year high, gold experienced its largest weekly decline in over three years.
Investors' attention is still focused on several Federal Reserve officials who will give speeches this week. The market believes that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has significantly decreased to 55.7%, lower than 82.5% a week ago.
Spot silver fell 0.9% to $30.92 per ounce; Platinum fell 1.8% to $956.87; Palladium fell 1.8% to $1016.73.
Oil market
Oil prices closed lower on Wednesday after data showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased more than expected last week, but concerns over the escalating war between Russia and Ukraine limited the decline in oil prices. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in January fell 0.68% to $72.81 per barrel. The settlement price of December US crude oil futures due on Wednesday fell 0.75% to $68.87. The settlement price of January US crude oil futures, which is more actively traded, fell by 0.71% to $68.75. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories exceeded expectations last week, putting pressure on oil prices.
Norway's Equinor said that after experiencing a power outage, the company's Johan Sverdrup oil field in the North Sea has resumed full production capacity. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as concerns about future oil supply disruptions, have provided bottom support for oil prices. John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said, "These supply side risks will certainly maintain price support and to some extent offset concerns about the global demand outlook
Ukraine launched a series of British Stormwind cruise missiles at Russia on Wednesday, the latest Western weapon it has been authorized to use against Russian targets. The day before, Ukraine used a US Army tactical missile system to strike Russia.
The United States vetoed the UN Security Council resolution on a ceasefire in Gaza on Wednesday, raising the war risk premium on oil prices and concerns about potential supply disruptions as the Middle East war continues. Three OPEC+sources familiar with the discussion said that amid weak global oil demand, OPEC+may postpone production increases again at its meeting on December 1st, which could further squeeze global supply.
foreign exchange market
The US dollar rose on Wednesday, regaining its post election gains after three consecutive trading days of decline, as investors sought further understanding of the Federal Reserve's interest rate plan and policies proposed by US President elect Trump.
Safe haven currencies such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and US dollar received a brief boost on Tuesday before their upward momentum dissipated. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Russia will "do everything possible" to avoid nuclear war. A few hours ago, Russia announced the lowering of the threshold for nuclear strikes and boosted the safe haven currency.
Even though the recent uptrend has paused, the
US dollar index has surged by about 3% since the US election, as people increasingly expect the
Federal Reserve to slow down its interest rate cut path due to concerns that Trump's policies may reignite inflation. Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors in New York, said, "There are many people who hold a pessimistic attitude towards the Fed's interest rate cuts, and we believe it is wrong. Except for Japan, other countries in the world must cut interest rates because they are basically zero growth. Without the United States, they would fall into recession. Therefore, the biggest variable is the United States. Everyone is extremely pessimistic about the Fed's interest rate cuts, and in our opinion, it is even too pessimistic
In recent weeks, the market's expectations for the path of interest rate cuts have converged, but there are still fluctuations. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the market believes that the probability of the
Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting is 52%, lower than 82.5% a week ago.
A Reuters survey shows that most economists expect the
Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its December meeting, and the rate of cuts in 2025 will be smaller than expected a month ago, as Trump's policies may lead to rising inflation. Recent statements from
Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, indicate that the Fed will remain slow and cautious on the path of interest rate cuts.
On Wednesday,
Federal Reserve officials Bauman and Cook expressed conflicting views on the direction of US monetary policy, with one citing ongoing concerns about inflation and the other expressing confidence that price pressures will continue to ease.
USD/JPY rose 0.43% to 155.31. Since early October, the US dollar has risen 9% against the Japanese yen, reaching a peak of 156.74. Last week, it broke through the 156 level for the first time since July, raising the possibility that Japanese authorities may take measures to support the yen again.
Investors are waiting for Trump to appoint the Treasury Secretary, one of the highest level cabinet positions overseeing the country's financial and economic policies. Some of Trump's other candidates have raised questions about their qualifications and experience.
The recent weakening of the Japanese yen to a three-month low has raised expectations of a possible hawkish shift by the Bank of Japan, as the yen is approaching the level that prompted the Bank of Japan to intervene in July. The remarks made by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda this week did not provide any new signals regarding the bank's inclination.
The pound fell 0.27% to 1.248 against the US dollar. The reason for the initial rise of the pound was that data showed that the inflation rate in the UK jumped more than expected last month, rising above the Bank of England's target of 2%, and core price growth also accelerated. The rise in inflation rate supports the cautious attitude of the Bank of England towards interest rate cuts. Traders believe that the likelihood of the Bank of England maintaining interest rate stability at next month's policy meeting is 82.8%.
international news
Federal Reserve Governor Bauman warns against cutting interest rates' too quickly '
Federal Reserve Governor Bauman said on Wednesday that the Fed should act cautiously and not cut interest rates "too quickly" to avoid triggering stubborn inflation again. According to the prepared speech,
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle? Bauman said at a conference in Florida, "In my opinion, lowering policy rates too quickly while the US economy remains strong will bring unnecessary risks of stimulating demand and may reignite inflationary pressures." She said that the
Federal Reserve should adopt a "cautious attitude" in future interest rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Governor Cook: Interest rate cuts should be made over time, and the pace of rate cuts will depend on data
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said that considering the progress in reducing inflation and a robust labor market, it may be appropriate to lower interest rates over time and move towards a more neutral stance. Cook believes that the risks facing the
Federal Reserve's employment and inflation targets are "roughly balanced". She stated that she believes the direction of interest rates is downward, but the magnitude and timing of the rate cut will depend on future data and economic prospects. Over time, it may be appropriate to move policy rates towards a more neutral stance, "Cook said on Wednesday, stating that a neutral policy stance is one that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity.
ECB Governing Council member Stournaras expects to achieve a 2% inflation target by early 2025
Yannis Stournaras, a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, stated that the Eurozone inflation rate is about to sustainably reach 2%, so officials have a responsibility to avoid inflation falling below the target. The Greek central bank governor said in a speech at Birkbeck College in London on Wednesday that policymakers have been able to declare success in controlling consumer prices and should now shift their stance and be more concerned about the risks to economic growth.
The import volume of the busiest port in the United States continues to increase significantly, and the threat of tariffs has prompted companies to import quickly
The import volume of the busiest maritime trade center in the United States continued to approach a record high in October, as companies rushed to import goods before tariffs could be raised, and also to avoid operational disruptions related to labor in alternative ports such as the East Coast. In October, the import volume of Los Angeles Port was 462740 20 foot standard containers. According to port data, the port processed 122716 export containers and 319570 empty containers in October. The nearby Long Beach Port processed nearly one million import, export, and empty containers in October, breaking the record set two months ago.
Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden: If uncertainty is eliminated, we will consider cutting interest rates faster
Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Ramsden, stated that if the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy is resolved in the coming months, he will consider voting in favor of a faster rate cut. Official data released earlier on Wednesday showed that the UK's inflation growth rate exceeded expectations and exceeded the 2% target. But Ramsden said he expects the economy to "continue normalizing" and move towards "low and relatively stable inflation".
Russian Finance Minister: 'Mirror style' measures have been taken against countries that freeze Russian assets
On November 20th local time, Russian Finance Minister Siluanov stated in an interview with the All Russian State Television Broadcasting Company that Russia has taken a "mirror style" measure against countries that freeze Russian assets. Since Western countries have decided to use Russian assets and the proceeds from those assets, Russia is also taking corresponding actions. The Russian side has also frozen the assets of Western investors, financial market participants, and companies, and will use the proceeds from these assets.
The Vice Chairman of the
Federal Reserve responsible for supervision, who will not resign due to Trump, said he will serve his full term
When asked if Trump might be forced to resign after taking office, Michael Barr, the Vice Chairman of the
Federal Reserve responsible for banking supervision, said he plans to serve his full term. Barr told lawmakers on Wednesday, 'As Chairman Powell said, our term is fixed, and I intend to complete my fixed term.'. Congressman Maxine Waters previously asked Barr if he would obey and leave if Trump were to dismiss him. Barr's term as Vice Chairman of Regulatory Affairs will end in July 2026, and his term as a member of the
Federal Reserve Board will end in January 2032.
The European Parliament agrees to approve the candidates for the new members of the European Commission
On November 20th local time, the European Parliament agreed to approve seven undecided nominees for the new members of the European Commission. According to the plan, the new team formed by European Commission President von der Leyen will take office on December 1. The European Parliament still needs to formally approve all 26 member candidates, and the vote is expected to be held next week.
The European Central Bank warns that trade tensions pose risks to financial stability in the eurozone
The Eurozone central bank found in its semi annual Financial Stability Assessment released on Wednesday that the escalating global trade tensions pose risks to the Eurozone economy. The European Central Bank also stated that weak economic growth poses a greater threat to the 20 countries of the Eurozone than high inflation. The latest data shows that the economic growth rate of the Eurozone in the third quarter reached its highest level in two years, 0.4%, while the overall inflation rate in October reached 2%. The European Central Bank stated that since the release of its last report in May, financial markets have experienced a "recovery in volatility," and pointed out that further volatility is "more likely than usual" due to overvaluation and risk concentration
Trump announces Matthew Whittaker as US Ambassador to NATO
On November 20th local time, US President elect Trump announced that former Acting Attorney General Matthew Whittaker will serve as the US Ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Matthew Whittaker graduated from the University of Iowa with a Bachelor's degree, MBA degree, and Juris Doctor degree. He was a football player during his college years and received the "Ten Major League Honor Medal". He also served as the United States Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory is the highest since the week of November 18, 2022
The EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory in the United States for the week ending November 15 was the highest since the week ending November 18, 2022. The increase in EIA gasoline inventories in the United States for the week ending November 15th was the largest since the week ending September 6th, 2024. The increase in EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory in the United States for the week ending November 15 was the largest since the week ending August 30, 2024, marking the 49th consecutive week of increase. The commercial crude
oil inventory excluding strategic reserves in the United States for the week ending November 15 was the highest since the week ending August 9, 2024. The crude
oil exports from the United States for the week ending November 15th were the highest since the week ending September 13th, 2024. The domestic crude
oil production in the United States for the week ending November 15th was the lowest since the week ending September 20th, 2024.
Domestic news
China's "Tianhe" new generation supercomputer wins the crown in the field of world map computing
According to the National Supercomputing Tianjin Center, China's "Tianhe" new generation supercomputer system has won the world's top spot in the Big Data Green Graph500 (Big Data Graph Computing Energy Efficiency) list with a performance of 6320.24 MTEPS/W in the latest international Graph500 ranking. Meng Xiangfei, Secretary of the Party Group and Chief Scientist of the National Supercomputing Tianjin Center, stated that the achievement of winning the world championship not only marks an international breakthrough in the ability of Tianhe Supercomputing to handle complex data analysis tasks, but also provides important support for promoting the development of new generation intelligent technology.
The 7th China International Industrial Design Expo opened in Wuhan
On November 20th, the 7th China International Industrial Design Expo, which lasted for 3 days, opened in Wuhan, Hubei. The theme of this expo is "Design drives future innovation and empowers development", with 8 exhibition areas including local, international, and future industry concepts. The exhibition area covers 20000 square meters and attracts more than 300 companies from around the world to participate, showcasing the latest achievements in industrial design development in recent years. It is understood that the China International Industrial Design Expo has become a window for global industrial design exchange and cooperation.
