On Thursday (November 21), US crude oil maintained a slight rebound during the Asian session, trading around $69.10 per barrel. Fundamentally, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased for the third consecutive week, with an increase of 500000 barrels last week, exceeding the expected 400000 barrels.

In addition, gasoline inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels. Negative oil price rebound. Although the pressure on the supply side caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict overshadowed the worries about the increase of EIA inventory, making the oil price keep rising on Monday, there is no breakthrough at present. At present, the bulls are still resisting and waiting for the box pressure test as the main focus.

Focus on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States and speeches by Federal Reserve officials during the day, while also paying attention to whether the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation will further intensify, thereby driving oil prices to break through.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has dropped to 52.3%, down from around 59% the day before

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping current interest rates unchanged until December is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 52.3%.

The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until January next year is 35.5%, the probability of reducing interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively is 51.1%, and the probability of reducing interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 13.4%.

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory is the highest since the week of November 18, 2022

The EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory in the United States for the week ending November 15 was the highest since the week ending November 18, 2022. The increase in EIA gasoline inventories in the United States for the week ending November 15th was the largest since the week ending September 6th, 2024.

The increase in EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory in the United States for the week ending November 15 was the largest since the week ending August 30, 2024, marking the 49th consecutive week of increase. The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves in the United States for the week ending November 15 was the highest since the week ending August 9, 2024.

The crude oil exports from the United States for the week ending November 15th were the highest since the week ending September 13th, 2024. The domestic crude oil production in the United States for the week ending November 15th was the lowest since the week ending September 20th, 2024.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as concerns about future disruptions to oil supply, have provided bottom support for oil prices

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, said, "These supply side risks will certainly maintain price support and to some extent offset concerns about the global demand outlook

Ukraine launched a series of British Stormwind cruise missiles at Russia on Wednesday, the latest Western weapon it has been authorized to use against Russian targets. The day before, Ukraine used the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to strike Russia.

The United States vetoed the UN Security Council resolution on a ceasefire in Gaza on Wednesday, raising the war risk premium on oil prices and concerns about potential supply disruptions as the Middle East war continues.

Daily chart of US crude oil