On Friday (November 22, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 2670. Gold has risen for four consecutive trading days this week, reaching a high of over a week, due to poor revenue expectations from artificial intelligence indicator Nvidia and escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, leading to a surge in safe haven demand; US crude oil rose slightly, trading around $70.13 per barrel as Russia and Ukraine launched missiles at each other, rapidly escalating tensions between the two countries. The market is concerned that if the conflict escalates, it will affect the supply of crude oil.

Focus on the manufacturing PMI data of various European countries, UK retail data, US November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, European Central Bank President Lagarde's speech at the European Banking Conference, and Swiss Central Bank President Schlegel's speech during the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 1.06% on Thursday at 43870.35 points; The S&P 500 index rose 0.53% to 5948.71 points; The Nasdaq index rose 0.03% to 18972.42 points.

equity market

The major US stock indices closed higher on Thursday after volatile trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 hitting a one week high. After three securities firms raised their target stock prices for cloud computing company Salesforce, the company's stock price rose by 3.1%, providing support for the Dow Jones Industrial Average's rise.

After Nvidia released its financial report on Wednesday, its stock price fluctuated and rose by 0.5% on Thursday. The company's quarterly performance exceeded expectations, and fourth quarter revenue is also expected to be higher than expected. Anthony Saglimbene, Chief Market Strategist of Ameriprise Financial, said that Nvidia's financial report is really good. Some people talk about high numbers, so they are a bit disappointed in this regard. But the fundamentals of artificial intelligence and Nvidia continue to make comprehensive efforts, and the prospects for next year are positive. Some investors are disappointed with the company's slowest growth forecast in seven quarters.

Alphabet fell 4.7%, hitting a four week low, after the US Department of Justice argued to a judge that Google must sell Chrome browser and take other measures to end its monopoly in the field of online search. The decline of Alphabet dragged down the communication services sector by 1.73%, making it the sector with the largest decline. Public utility stocks led the S&P index to rise. Amazon fell 2.2% after reports that it may face an EU investigation next year into whether its online marketplace favors private label products.

In terms of data, the weekly report on the number of people applying for unemployment benefits shows that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased last week, indicating a rebound in employment growth in November. Investors will closely monitor the statements of Federal Reserve officials before the mid December Federal Open Market Committee meeting. According to FedWatch from Zhishang Institute, money market bets tend to believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. Saglimbene said, "We have already come out of the election and Nvidia's financial report has been released, so the market will focus on the Fed meeting next. Some policy speeches from Fed officials this week indicate that there may be a pause in interest rate cuts in December

According to media reports, Richmond Fed President Barkin stated that compared to the past, the United States is more susceptible to the impact of inflation shocks. Chicago Fed President Goolsby said on Thursday that he supports further interest rate cuts and is open to slower rate cuts. Traders are also concerned about the geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia, which have led to an increase in crude oil prices and helped the energy sector rise by 0.8%.

gold market

Spot gold rose for the fourth consecutive trading day on Thursday, reaching a high of over a week, due to poor revenue expectations from artificial intelligence benchmark Nvidia and escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, leading to a surge in safe haven demand. Spot gold was reported at $2670.49 per ounce, up 0.8%; US gold futures closed at $2674.90, up 0.9%. David Meger, the head of metal trading at Gaoling Futures, said, "In the past few days, a major geopolitical factor has really been at work in the gold market, and the escalating tension between Ukraine and Russia may be the most notable

During the global crisis, investors flocked to safe haven assets, and since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in October last year, gold has repeatedly hit historic highs. Global stock markets experienced a downturn after artificial intelligence trendsetter Nvidia's revenue growth expectations failed to excite investors.

So far this week, spot gold prices have risen by 4%, the best performance since April, recovering from the largest weekly decline in over three weeks last week. Boosted by the excitement of the "Trump deal," the US dollar soared, driving down gold prices.

A Reuters survey shows that most economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, with even smaller cuts expected in 2025.

Investors' focus is still on several Federal Reserve officials scheduled to give speeches this week. The expectation of a December interest rate cut has significantly decreased, with a current probability of 56%, a significant decrease from 82.5% a week ago.

Spot silver fell 0.1% to $30.85 per ounce; Platinum rose 0.5% to $965.75; Palladium rose 1.5% to $1036.13.

Oil market

Oil prices rose nearly 2% on Thursday as Russia and Ukraine launched missiles at each other, rapidly escalating tensions between the two countries. The market is concerned that if the conflict escalates, it will affect the supply of crude oil.

Russian President Putin stated on Thursday that Russia launched a strike on a military facility in Ukraine using hypersonic intermediate range ballistic missiles and warned the West that Moscow may strike any military facility of a country that uses weapons to attack Russia.

Putin said that the Western countries allowed Kiev to use its long-range missiles to attack Russia, which escalated the Russia-Ukraine conflict and is becoming a global conflict.

Ukraine launched missiles from the United States and the United Kingdom towards targets within Russian territory this week, despite Moscow warning that such actions would be seen as a major escalation.

Brent crude oil futures rose 1.95% to $74.23 per barrel; US crude oil futures rose 2% to $70.10. The focus of the market has now shifted to high concerns about the escalation of the war in Ukraine, "said Ole Hvalbye, a commodity analyst at SEB, a Swedish bank

Russia is the world's second largest crude oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, so significant supply disruptions may affect global supply.

In the week ending November 15th, US crude oil inventories increased by 545000 barrels, reaching 430.3 million barrels, exceeding analysts' expectations. This puts pressure on the market.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has recently issued several policy measures to promote stable growth in foreign trade, clearly increasing financing support for foreign trade enterprises and encouraging banking institutions to continuously optimize their financial services for foreign trade enterprises in terms of credit, loans, and repayments; Expand the export of advantageous and characteristic agricultural products, and support the import of key equipment, energy resources, and other products. Three OPEC+sources familiar with the discussion said that due to weak global oil demand, OPEC+may postpone production increases again at the meeting on December 1st.

foreign exchange market

The US dollar rose to 107.15 in volatile trading on Thursday, reaching its highest level since October 4, 2023, as investors evaluated the latest US labor market data and comments from Federal Reserve officials on interest rate trends. And concerns that Trump's policies may reignite inflation have contributed to the rise of the US dollar. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 6000, reaching a seasonally adjusted low of 213000, a seven month low and lower than the 220000 expected by economists surveyed by Reuters. This suggests that employment growth is likely to rebound in November after a sudden slowdown last month due to hurricanes and strikes. However, the report also indicates that there is a slack in the labor market as the unemployed take longer to find new jobs, with the number of unemployed reaching its highest level in three years, providing a buffer for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December.

The EUR/USD fell 0.64% to 1.0476, having previously hit a 13 month low of 1.0461. Brad Bechtel, global foreign exchange manager at FTSE in New York, said that some people may think that the current market pricing is very hawkish, somewhat like shifting from one extreme to another. Therefore, in some pricing of the Federal Reserve and possibly the Bank of England, it has begun to appear somewhat aggressive. But at the same time, their recent statements are quite hawkish, and we may fluctuate and consolidate at the current level. At the current level, the price of the US dollar is influenced by many factors, so I will definitely not chase after the rise.

Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, stated on Thursday that if trade becomes more fragile, global economic output will suffer a "considerable" loss, and the initial boost to inflation will "gradually weaken" over the next few years. The expectation for the path of interest rate cuts has recently been reduced. According to the FedWatch Tool from Zhishang Institute, the market digested the Federal Reserve in 1

The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the February meeting is 55.9%, lower than 72.2% a week ago.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams stated in an interview published in Barron's on Thursday that he believes inflation is cooling down and interest rates will further decline. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Thomas Barkin stated in an interview with the Financial Times that compared to the past, the United States is more susceptible to the impact of inflation shocks.

In addition, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Gurrs supports further interest rate cuts and accepts slower action.

Safe haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc once strengthened, because the latest signs showed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict might escalate, but then the trend reversed. The dollar fell 0.56% against the yen to 154.56, an intraday decline of 0.98%. The US dollar rose 0.29% against the Swiss franc to 0.887 Swiss francs, but fell as much as 0.21% during trading. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Thursday that the central bank will "seriously" consider exchange rate fluctuations when preparing economic and price forecasts.

international news 

International Atomic Energy Agency: Nuclear safety at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant at risk

On the 21st local time, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Grossi, stated that the nuclear safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is still in danger. Because the facility lost its connection to its transmission line twice within a few days. On the 21st, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant announced that one of its two high-voltage transmission lines has automatically shut down.

Economist: US initial jobless claims data this week is a positive signal for the labor market

Nancy Vanden Houten, Chief Economist at Oxford Economics, stated that the number of initial jobless claims has dropped to its lowest level since April, which is a positive signal for the labor market. She said, "Seasonal factors will cause fluctuations in weekly data, so we will not interpret the changes in the data for a week too much. However, driven by the Boeing strike and hurricanes Helen and Milton, the number of initial jobless claims has returned to a level consistent with limited layoffs." It still remains at a high level, but the recent upward trend in data may be the "aftermath" of the Boeing strike, hurricanes Helen and Milton, and layoffs at Midwestern American car companies.

The New York Federal Reserve claims that bank reserves are sufficient, indicating that there are no obstacles to continuing to shrink the balance sheet

The latest data from the New York Federal Reserve shows that the Fed has not encountered any obstacles in continuing to reduce the size of its balance sheet. The New York Federal Reserve reported on Thursday that its reserve demand elasticity index remained stable at -0.15 on November 13th compared to a month ago. The New York Federal Reserve stated in its report that "reserves are still sufficient". The index began to be publicly released a month ago, aiming to show the adequacy or tightness of bank reserves. The shift towards negative numbers may indicate an increase in the tightness of bank reserves, which directly indicates that the Federal Reserve is continuously working to reduce bond holdings through quantitative tightening (QT). The indicators from the New York Fed indicate that there is no need to immediately halt this process, which is in line with recent statements from Fed officials and market expectations that quantitative tightening is expected to end at some point next year.

Federal Reserve's Gulsby says labor market has stabilized, may need to slow pace of rate cuts

Chicago Fed President Goolsby reiterated on Thursday that he supports further interest rate cuts and is open to taking slower action, highlighting the debate among Fed policymakers that the issue is not whether to cut rates, but the speed and magnitude of the cuts. Federal Reserve policymakers will hold a meeting on December 17-18 to decide whether to lower policy rates again or wait until next year. The financial market believes that the process of making a decision will be difficult, and the interest rate futures market believes that the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is about 55%, and the probability of not cutting interest rates is 45%.

IMF: Will not evaluate the impact of Trump's economic policy plan until details are seen

Julie Kozack, spokesperson for the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated on Thursday that it is "too early" to speculate on the potential impact of US President elect Trump's tax cuts and other policies after reviewing their details. Kozack said at his first regular press conference after the US election on November 5th that Trump's economic plan has not yet taken shape, given that he will take office on January 20th, 2025. Kozack said, "To a large extent, the exact impact of these policies will depend on the details, which is why we need to evaluate them after seeing the details

SEC Chairman Intends to Step Down on Trump Oath Day

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that SEC Chairman Gensler plans to step down on January 20 next year. Gensler took over the SEC in 2021 and serves a term of five years under normal circumstances. During his tenure, he adopted an ambitious but controversial style of handling several regulatory commissions. Trump has not yet announced who will take over the SEC, but the market expects the next SEC chairman to maintain a more friendly stance towards Wall Street.

Bank of England official Mann argues that a 100 basis point rate cut is too aggressive, which contradicts the views of most colleagues

Bank of England official Catherine Mann said that cutting interest rates by 100 basis points over the next year would fuel inflation. This means that she holds a different position from the majority of members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) who support gradual interest rate cuts. 100 basis points is too aggressive, "Mann said at the Brown Brothers Harriman event on Thursday." This would be inconsistent with my views on future demand conditions and the sustainability of underlying inflation. "Mann's statement was made in response to questions about the remarks made by Alan Taylor, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, this week. Taylor suggests that 'gradual' means cutting interest rates once every quarter. The current expected rate cut in the money market is around 70 basis points, which means there will be two rate cuts and possibly a third. Mann's preferred approach is to maintain interest rates unchanged for a longer period of time, and once it is clear that there is a change in the "underlying inflation dynamics," a larger rate cut can be made. On November 7th, the nine member MPC decided to cut interest rates for the second time this year, with Mann being the only member who opposed it.

Second hand home sales in the United States increase in October, buyers seize the opportunity of interest rate decline

Second hand home sales in the United States in October saw the largest increase since earlier this year, as buyers seized the opportunity of the previous month's decline in mortgage rates. According to data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Thursday, second-hand home sales in October increased by 3.4% month on month, to an annual rate of 3.96 million units. This is in line with the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Despite the increase in sales, the housing market is still struggling due to fluctuating mortgage interest rates and limited inventory. Mortgage interest rates fell to a two-year low in September, prompting buyers to sign contracts and close deals the following month. The current cost of housing financing is approaching 7%, which has weakened market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in the coming months due to strong economic data and Trump's victory in the election. Additional job growth and sustained economic growth seem to be guaranteed, leading to a continuous increase in housing demand, "NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a prepared statement. Although mortgage interest rates remain high, they are expected to stabilize. The high cost of borrowing has led to a shortage of second-hand housing, and many potential sellers are unwilling to list their properties for sale and give up the low interest rates they have locked in. But more homeowners are starting to accept mortgage rates of around 6% -7% as the new normal and pushing their homes into the market. Despite weak sales, tight inventory has led to high housing prices. The NAR report shows that the median selling price in October increased by 4% year-on-year to $407200, setting a record for the highest October price in history.