Last week (1118-1122), gold prices rose for five consecutive days, with Monday and Friday being almost bare headed bullish lines, highlighting the strong buying momentum in the market after reversing its previous two weeks of decline. The bullish sentiment in the market has undoubtedly greatly increased, and the latest survey shows that both retail investors and institutions are unanimously bullish on gold prices. Spot gold closed at $2714.43 per ounce on a weekly basis, up 5.97%, marking the largest weekly increase in 20 months. At that time, it closed up 6.27% for the week of March 17, 2023. The gold price continued to receive buying support in the hour leading up to last week's close and almost held all of its gains, indicating that market investors did not become cautious and take profits due to the weekend, which is also a confirmation of bullish sentiment.

Looking back, on November 18th (last Monday), the daily chart showed an orange bold support line, a lower Bollinger Band, and a Fibonacci 50% retracement concentrated around 2540. The market results proved that these three major supports provided strong support for the price, and coupled with market sentiment being boosted by concerns about the Russia Ukraine situation, gold prices skyrocketed. 2) The possibility of the gold price breaking through 2643 at once is low, and the actual market has been sideways for about 23 hours in the range of around 2640 to 2620. 3) There are bearish interest points near 2708 and 2748, and currently the gold price has been measured at 2708 but has not yet reached 2748. The actual market trend rose again after the gold price hit 2710 and fell by $26 to the 2684 line. The above three points are all informative reminders. In other aspects, there are also areas where predictions are inaccurate. It is believed that the reversal of gold prices will form a bottom with a new low, but the actual market is stronger than expected.

The probability of gold prices continuing to rise this week (week 1125-1129) is almost everyone's expectation. Although there may be a surge and a pullback, according to the current market sentiment and the almost bare headed form of the daily candlestick, continuing to test upwards is almost certain to happen. The highest possible range is around 2800-2810. The specific analysis is as follows:

On a weekly basis, the gold price has formed a bullish engulfment pattern, and the bullish sentiment in the market may continue to push up the gold price in the coming week. This week, there is a testing "red bolded" tilted pressure line for gold prices (as shown in the figure), which, along with its two parallel red lines, has acted as supporting resistance multiple times in recent times. Due to the resistance line's entry level around 2807 this week, there is more than $90 of room compared to last Friday's closing price of 2714. Therefore, there is a possibility of testing the 2800-2810 range. However, MACD and KDJ are still at overbought high levels, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the selling pressure after rising weakly. Therefore, if the gold price can rise to 2800-2810, it is expected to be subject to selling pressure. If you can continue to break through, pay attention to the 2840-2850 area. (Three points in pink font A, B, and C in the picture are translated to A+B+and C+respectively)

Weekly chart: Technical analysis chart of spot gold weekly chart

On the daily chart, the bullish candlestick on Friday rose directly from the 25% retracement of our focus on Fibonacci to above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Both MACD and KDJ on the daily chart are close to forming a golden cross below the dividing line. The gold price is clearly showing a "V-shaped" reversal pattern on the daily chart, which usually surges to near the original high point in one breath. This means that there is a high possibility of testing the 2790 line for the gold price. However, the 2740-2750 range during this period has experienced a sideways trend during the previous decline, so it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of retracement when exploring this area. Attention can be paid to 2729, 2718, 2710 and the middle band of the daily Bollinger Bands (around 2687). In the process of upward movement, if there is a diffusion pattern or a typical head shape, attention should be paid to the risk of downward movement. If it breaks through 2790, we will focus on the 2800-2810 area analyzed in the weekly chart above. Although the bull market never reaches its peak, this resistance zone is a key obstacle for me to predict this week's market trend.

Daily chart: Technical analysis chart of spot gold daily chart

This week, in addition to focusing on geopolitical situations such as Russia and Ukraine, it is also necessary to pay attention to the impact of economic data such as US housing market data, GDP, and durable goods orders on the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts. If the data is relatively average, then the impact is neutral. If the data is significantly worse than expected, although the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates in December, there is still hope for gold prices to gain more buying due to weak US data in a bullish sentiment. If the data is strong, the gold price will only give a clear downward response when it is weak, otherwise this negative news may become a buying opportunity for some investors.