In August of this year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the rate down to 5.25%. This is the first interest rate cut since March 2020, marking a shift from the previous tightening stance. In October, in response to economic weakness and low inflation, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand implemented a more significant 50 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the rate to 4.75%. This decision aims to provide additional stimulus for the economy.

On Wednesday, November 27th at 09:00 Beijing time, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold its next interest rate decision. Currently, many analysts and institutions have given their own predictions, with most predicting that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will continue to cut interest rates this time.

Most forecasts predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rates by 50 basis points this week

Market analyst Lallalit Srijandorn predicts that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this week, lowering rates by 4.25%.

Goldman Sachs and ANZ Bank also expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this week.

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) has a "shadow committee" composed of analysts who recommend a 50 basis point rate cut.

The Shadow Committee recommends that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lower the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 4.25% in its upcoming November monetary policy statement. As annual inflation has now returned to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's inflation target range of 1% to 3%, and the New Zealand economy remains weak, most members believe that a 50 basis point rate cut in November is appropriate.

A member also pointed out that considering the 3-month gap between the November and February meetings, it is appropriate to lower the interest rate by 50 basis points at the upcoming meeting in order to restore it to neutral within the next 12 months.

The New Zealand dollar is expected to drop to 0.55

Because the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut interest rates by 75 basis points since August, the New Zealand dollar has fallen by about 8% so far this quarter.

Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange strategy at the National Australia Bank, said, "Given that Trump may implement tariffs in the first half of 2025, this will impact global growth prospects and will not provide any support for the New Zealand dollar. Therefore, we do not rule out the possibility of the New Zealand dollar falling to 0.55 against the US dollar next year

Pacific Bank strategist Imre Speizer stated that the bank's basic forecast is for the New Zealand dollar to fall to 0.58 against the US dollar by the end of the year, with a minimum target of 0.55 for this year or the first quarter of next year.

NZD/USD daily chart