Macroscopic perspective

The comprehensive purchasing managers' index rose to a high level in November, with manufacturing and service PMI rising, but companies are cautious about increasing their workforce. The Federal Reserve survey shows that financial professionals are worried about the US debt and other issues, and will review the policy framework in May. Trump nominated Besson as Secretary of the Treasury, who has extensive experience and a positive response from Wall Street. However, he faces challenges such as fiscal deficits, aid to Ukraine, and climate change stance. The yield of US long-term treasury bond bonds declined, and the employment and inflation data in early December attracted attention. Internationally, Israel agrees in principle with the draft Israeli Lebanese ceasefire agreement proposed by the United States, which has not yet been formally approved. The United States has unilateral action guarantees for Israel, while Lebanon says there are still problems to be solved. Russia's Putin stated that he will continue to test new hypersonic missile systems, which are ready for use at any time. Zelensky condemned this as an escalation of the war. In short, the recent international situation is complex, and many of the above-mentioned events deserve close attention.

The US Dollar Index

In terms of the US dollar index, the overall price of the US dollar index showed an upward trend last Friday. The highest price of the day rose to 108.086, the lowest was 106.895, and closed at 107.477. Looking back at the performance of the US dollar index prices last Friday, after the morning opening, the prices fluctuated in the short term, followed by a strong upward trend in the European market. During the US market period, the prices fluctuated and eventually ended with a strong bullish trend at the daily and weekly levels. At present, it is necessary to pay attention to the daily support range of 106.00-10 for the US index. This position is a key watershed for the trend of the US index band. After the short-term price is in place, we should first look for further upward movement, and focus on the 107.50-108.20 area above.

The US Composite Index is mostly in the 106.00-10 range, with a defense of $5 and a target of 107-107.50-108.20

EUR/USD

In terms of EUR/USD, the overall prices of Europe and the United States showed a downward trend last Friday. The lowest price of the day fell to 1.0332, the highest rose to 1.0497, and closed at 1.0417. Looking back at the performance of the European and American markets last Friday, prices fluctuated in the short term during the morning session, followed by rapid pressure and decline during the US session, and finally ended in a bearish trend on both the daily and weekly lines. At present, the daily resistance level is in the range of 1.0580-90, and the 4-hour resistance has risen to a high point in early trading today. There is still an upward trend in short-term prices, so we will temporarily focus on the daily resistance area before looking at the pressure.

EUR/USD 1.0580-90 range empty, defend 40 points, target 1.0500-1.0420

Today's Key Financial Data and Events: Monday, November 25th, 2024

① 17:00 Germany November IFO Business Sentiment Index

② 23:30 Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for November in the United States