On Wednesday (November 27th), spot gold slightly fell, trading around $2631.51 per ounce. Despite the risk of renewed trade tensions, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, as well as the cautious attitude of the Federal Reserve towards further interest rate cuts, dragged down the rise in gold prices. US crude oil trading was at $68.82 per barrel. OPEC+delayed production recovery plans, but Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire agreement, reducing the risk premium of oil. Early API data showed that the decline in US crude oil inventories supported oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.28% on Tuesday at 44860.31 points; The S&P 500 index rose 0.57% to 6021.63 points; The Nasdaq index rose 0.63% to close at 19174.30 points.

Key focus for the day: Australian CPI, New Zealand interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims data, US GDP, PCE, monthly durable goods order rates, EIA data.

equity market

The US stock market closed higher on Tuesday, led by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, with tech stocks rebounding as investors digested news of President elect Trump's promise to impose tariffs on major trading partners and the latest minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting.

Short term interest rate futures in the United States narrowed their decline after the latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve showed that officials seemed to be divided on how much further interest rate cuts were needed. The minutes of the meeting on November 6-7 also showed that Federal Reserve officials unanimously agreed that it is time to avoid giving too many specific guidance on the possible path of US monetary policy in the coming weeks. Jamie Cox, Managing Partner of Harris Financial Group, said, "The meeting minutes did not change my view that the policy rate will be lowered next month and will continue to be lowered in the next calendar year." Other analysts were more cautious.

Paul Ashworth, Chief North American Economist at Capital Economics, pointed out that he still expects to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points, but reminded that this decision depends on data, so November's employment and inflation data will be crucial.

Trump has stated that he will impose a 25% conditional tariff on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, which may violate the free trade agreement he negotiated during his previous term. Ford and General Motors both fell due to this news, with General Motors plummeting nearly 9%. Both have highly integrated supply chains with Mexico, the United States, and Canada.

Robert Pavlik, Senior Portfolio Manager at Dakota Wealth, said: People are concerned that the cost of some products will become higher, which will mean a decrease in revenue for companies that may produce these products overseas. The current situation is back and forth, as investors are trying to prepare for January and beyond, but they are unsure.

The rise of super large cap stocks such as Microsoft and Apple boosted the information technology sector and the tech powerhouse Nasdaq index. Microsoft's increase was slightly over 2%. Fuguo Bank rose 0.6%, standing out among a group of sluggish bank stocks. According to sources cited by Reuters, the bank is in the final stage of passing regulatory tests to address the problems caused by the fake account scandal,

Cancel the asset ceiling of $1.95 trillion next year.

gold market

Spot gold remained stable at $2626.83 per ounce on Tuesday, recovering some lost ground. It had previously hit its lowest level since November 18th and its lowest level in a week during a tug of war. Prior to this, Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire agreement, leading to a softening of safe haven demand. However, concerns over Ukraine and US President elect Trump's tariff plan limited the decline in gold prices. US futures closed 0.1% higher, with a settlement price of $2621.30.

According to Channel 12's report on Tuesday, the Israeli security cabinet has agreed to a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon. Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, said, "This may be a realization that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah can only slightly alleviate overall geopolitical risks, although there are also some optimistic factors involved

Grant added that people are still concerned about the broader impact of Russia on Ukraine, and gold may experience volatility and consolidation in the near future, fluctuating between $2575-2750.

Trump's promise to impose large tariffs on Canada and Mexico is an imminent risk. Analysts say that while these measures may trigger trade tensions and enhance the attractiveness of gold, the resulting inflation risks could hinder the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates, potentially putting pressure on gold prices.

At present, the market believes that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December is 56%, and investors remain cautious. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting on November 6-7 show that officials have expressed different views on possible future interest rate cuts. However, they collectively decided not to provide specific guidance on the possible direction of US monetary policy for now.

Spot silver rose 0.4% to $30.40 per ounce; Palladium rose 1% to $982.87. Platinum fell 1.3% to $926.35, and analysts from Deutsche Bank predict that platinum prices will reach $1100 by 2025.

Oil market

Oil prices closed lower on Tuesday, continuing Monday's downward trend amidst volatile trading. Previously, Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire agreement, reducing the risk premium of oil. Brent crude oil futures closed down 0.27% at $72.81 per barrel. US crude oil futures closed at $68.77 per barrel, down 0.25%. According to Channel 12, the Israeli Security Cabinet has agreed to reach a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon. The agreement is expected to take effect on Wednesday.

According to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), US crude oil inventories decreased last week while oil inventories increased. During the week ending November 22, crude oil inventories decreased by 5.94 million barrels. Gasoline inventory increased by 1.81 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 2.54 million barrels.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he is ready to implement the ceasefire agreement reached with Lebanon and will provide a strong response to any violations of the ceasefire by Hezbollah.

StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said in a report on Tuesday that a ceasefire could put pressure on oil prices as the US government may reduce oil sanctions against Hezbollah supporter Iran.

Two OPEC+sources said on Tuesday that member countries are discussing further delaying the oil production increase plan originally scheduled to begin in January. The group will hold a meeting on Sunday to decide on production policies for the first few months of 2025. Analyst Kilduff from AgainCapital said, 'This morning, there is still a slight warmth in the oil market, with OPEC+discussing further postponement of production increases, coupled with Trump's tariff news, but it is not enough to support US crude oil prices above $70 per barrel.'. "

Trump said he will impose a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada. Two sources familiar with the plan told Reuters on Tuesday that crude oil will not be excluded.

foreign exchange market

The US dollar index rose to 107.15 on Tuesday, higher than 106.86 later on Monday. The Australian dollar fell to a three-month low of $0.6434 in early trading in Asia, and fell 0.83% to $0.6448 in late trading.

US President elect Trump has promised to impose tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico, causing their currencies to depreciate against the US dollar on Tuesday, raising the specter of trade tensions once again and bringing uncertainty to other currency pairs.

US President elect Trump vowed on Monday to impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada from his first day in office, citing illegal immigration and drug trade, resulting in a very sluggish market. Thursday is the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, and many traders will take another day off on Friday.

In afternoon trading in New York, the US dollar surged over 2.5% against the Mexican peso, reaching its highest level since July 2022 and surpassing the high set on November 6th, after Trump won the US election on November 5th. Trump has long been a supporter of tariffs, renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico during his first term. The US dollar closed at 20.685 against the Mexican peso in the closing session. Juan Perez, the head of trading at Monex USA, said, "In the week we are currently in, I don't think these statements have caused all the damage we haven't seen yet. But of course, the peso could easily fall to multi-year lows against the US dollar

Mexican President Hern á ndez warned on Tuesday that tariffs would have terrible economic consequences for both countries and hinted at the possibility of retaliatory action.

UAD/CAD reached a new high in four and a half years, with an increase of over 1.5%. It rose 0.61% in the closing session to 1.41 Canadian dollars. The Canadian dollar has actually stabilized to some extent, "said Shaun Osborne, Chief Foreign Exchange Strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto." The biggest loser is still the peso, which has fallen about 2% against the US dollar

The US dollar against the Chinese yuan also rose to its highest point since July 30th, at 7.2631 yuan. Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank, said, "I think last night we had a perfect example of why volatility would be greater under Trump's leadership. He was able to make such comments outside of normal trading hours in the US market, which was overwhelming. It made investors and everyone eager to know what this really meant

In other aspects, the rise and fall of the US dollar were mixed. The previous day, the US dollar fell as Trump nominated hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as the US Treasury Secretary late last Friday, which boosted government bonds and lowered yields.

USD/JPY fell 0.57% to 153.33. The EUR/USD remained stable in the morning and fell 0.33% to $1.0459 in the closing session. Both currency pairs have reduced their declines, following the release of November meeting minutes by the Federal Reserve, which showed that many policymakers unanimously agreed that gradually reducing policy restrictions was appropriate. At the meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate by another 25 basis points to 4.50% -4.75%. The minutes of the meeting released on Tuesday showed that participants pointed out that monetary policy decisions are not on a predetermined path, but depend on the evolution of the economy and its impact on the economic outlook. They emphasized that it is very important for the Federal Open Market Committee to clarify this when adjusting its policy stance. The remaining major data for this week is the October personal consumption expenditure price index on Wednesday.

international news 

According to media reports, the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel will come into effect at 10:00 am on the 27th

According to Israeli Channel 12 television and Haaretz, on the evening of the 26th local time, the Israeli Security Cabinet confirmed that the Lebanon Israel ceasefire agreement would come into effect at 10:00 am local time on the 27th. As of now, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office has not issued an official statement. There has been no official response from Lebanon and Hezbollah regarding this news. Earlier that day, the Israeli Security Cabinet held a meeting to discuss a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to media reports, at the beginning of the cabinet meeting, the Israeli Defense Forces launched the "most intense attack" on Lebanon since the beginning of the Lebanon Israel conflict. Lebanese National Assembly Deputy Speaker Saab previously stated in an interview on the 25th that Beirut has approved the agreement. The ceasefire is expected to be announced in the next few hours or days.

The Federal Reserve releases November meeting minutes predicting another interest rate cut in December

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on November 6-7. According to the meeting minutes, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December. The minutes of the meeting showed that the Federal Reserve decided to lower its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at its November meeting, bringing its benchmark funds rate to the range of 4.5% to 4.75%. The Fed also stated that further adjustments to its monetary policy stance would help maintain the strength of the economy and labor market, while continuing to push inflation further down. The attendees believe that continuing to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings is appropriate. The attendees expected that if the data is roughly consistent with expectations, the inflation rate continues to decline to 2%, and the economy is still close to the maximum employment rate, then gradually shifting towards a more neutral policy stance over time may be appropriate. According to meeting minutes, members of the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously agree that economic activity continues to expand at a steady pace, with job growth slowing down since earlier this year and unemployment rising but still at a low level. The committee unanimously agreed that inflation has moved towards the target of 2%, but the inflation rate is still slightly higher.

EU launches excessive deficit program against eight member states including France and Italy

The European Commission released the European autumn package plan for 2024. The document pointed out that in order to get rid of the energy crisis encountered during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the public debt of member countries rose sharply and the fiscal deficit reached a higher level. Therefore, the plan outlines the fiscal paths, priority investments, and growth promoting reforms of member countries in the coming years to reduce debt and deficits. According to regulations, the European Commission has initiated excessive deficit procedures for eight countries, including Belgium, France, Italy, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. It is reported that according to the procedure, relevant countries should take effective actions to reduce deficits within a specified time, otherwise they may be fined. The EU Stability and Growth Pact stipulates that the annual fiscal deficit of EU member states shall not exceed 3% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and public debt shall not exceed 60% of their GDP. In addition to the eight countries mentioned above, Austria and Finland also exceeded the reference value of 3% of GDP in 2024, but the committee stated that the Austrian and Finnish authorities have begun to take measures to ensure that next year's budget deficit is reduced to below 3% of GDP.

Federal Reserve Messenger: Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggest that if inflation stagnates, interest rate cuts will become cautious

Nick Timiraos, the spokesperson for the Federal Reserve, wrote that Federal Reserve officials discussed at a meeting earlier this month the possibility of slowing or suspending interest rate cuts if progress in reducing inflation stagnates. According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Tuesday, officials believe that if the economic performance meets their expectations that inflation will continue to steadily decline, then "gradually moving towards a more neutral interest rate setting may be appropriate. The minutes of the meeting showed that all 19 officials involved in the discussion agreed to lower the Federal Reserve's benchmark short-term interest rate by 25 percentage points. Some policy makers believe that the risk of a more significant slowdown in the job market or economy has weakened since the September meeting. Many of them also expressed that there is greater uncertainty about where interest rates should be set for an economy that neither requires stimulus nor monetary constraints. The meeting minutes stated that these considerations "make it appropriate to gradually reduce policy constraints"

Trump's tariff plans for Canada and Mexico will not exempt crude oil

Two sources familiar with the plan said that US President elect Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported products from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office, but this does not exempt crude oil from trade penalties. Affected by the news, the US and Brent crude oil prices rose by 0.5 US dollars in the short term. Previously, Mexican President Simbaum stated that the United States cannot effectively solve the immigration problem or alleviate the domestic drug consumption crisis by simply threatening and imposing tariffs. The American Petroleum Institute (API) states that the free flow of energy products between the United States, Mexico, and Canada is crucial for North American energy security and American customers.

S&P: UK economy expected to accelerate development

Standard&Poor's Global Ratings stated on Tuesday that the UK economy is expected to accelerate as the Bank of England implements a more relaxed fiscal policy. The institution currently expects a GDP growth rate of 1.5% for the UK in 2025, higher than the previous forecast of 1.3%. Standard&Poor's predicts a growth rate of 1.6% in 2026, consistent with previous expectations, while the projected growth rate for 2027 is 1.5%, lower than the previous estimate of 1.7%. Standard&Poor's predicts that the Bank of England will cut interest rates four times in the next few quarters, with rates dropping to 3.75% by the end of 2025. The agency expects that public consumption and investment spending may increase GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points next year and 0.5 percentage points in 2026.

Wall Street banks benefit from trading Israeli currency and bonds

Due to the volatility caused by the 14 month long war in the Middle East, the world's top investment banks are expected to earn their highest income in five years from trading Israeli bonds and currencies. According to data from Vali Analytics Ltd, banks are expected to achieve fixed income, currency, and commodity trading (FICC) revenue related to Israel of $475 million in 2024, an increase of over 10% from 2023, mainly due to increased volatility in the Israeli currency shekel. The income growth indicates how global banks are profiting from the volatility of Israeli asset prices as Israel continues its wars in Gaza and Lebanon. The conflict has exacerbated Israel's inflation, limited economic growth, and increased borrowing costs. According to a source familiar with the matter, JPMorgan Chase is expected to become the most profitable among the 10 global banks surveyed by the data company, earning approximately $70 million from such transactions so far this year.

Representative: OPEC+begins negotiations on delaying production increase

The OPEC+representative stated that key OPEC+member countries have begun discussing measures to delay the planned resumption of oil production in January next year, possibly for several months. The measure to delay the production recovery plan has emerged amidst signs of global oversupply. On Tuesday, according to a statement from the Iraqi Prime Minister's Office, the Saudi Energy Minister discussed maintaining stability in the oil market with the Russian Deputy Prime Minister and the Iraqi Prime Minister. The original plan of 8 OPEC+countries to gradually increase production by 2.2 million barrels per month starting from January, which was supposed to be implemented in October, has been repeatedly postponed due to the setback in oil prices.

Domestic news

China's first offshore gas storage facility officially starts gas production and will supply gas to the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region this winter

On November 26th, the production valve of the Nanpu No.1 gas storage well of China National Petroleum Corporation Jidong Oilfield Branch located in the Tangshan sea area of Bohai Sea was opened, and natural gas smoothly entered the production equipment along the gas production process - marking the first round of formal gas production in China's first offshore gas storage facility. The natural gas stored in the gas storage facility infiltrates the seabed through pipelines, travels underwater, and ultimately merges into the national pipeline network's' main artery ', "said Zhang Yongdong, Secretary of the Party Committee and Manager of the Jidong Oilfield Gas Storage Construction Project Department (Gas Storage Company). As a peak shaving and supply gas, this clean energy source from the depths of the ocean can warm thousands of households in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region.

Multiple banks announce risk level increase for gold investment products

Recently, the volatility of gold prices has intensified and market risks have increased. Multiple banks have announced adjustments to the risk levels and investment thresholds of their gold investment products and issued reminders to investors to raise their awareness of risk prevention in personal gold accumulation and other precious metal trading businesses, control their positions reasonably, pay timely attention to changes in their positions and margin balances, and invest rationally. Since the beginning of this year, several banks such as China Construction Bank, Ping An Bank, and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank have raised the risk level of their gold investment products. Several banks, including Bank of Communications, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank of China, have raised the minimum purchase amount for deposits, ranging from 100 yuan to 120 yuan. The adjusted minimum purchase amount ranges from 650 yuan to 700 yuan