Trump's tariff war, Ukraine explosion... the market remains fragile! Gold is heading towards the worst month

2024-11-28 1807

On Thursday (November 28th), Asian stock markets fell while the US dollar slightly strengthened. Investors are concerned about the stagnant progress of US data showing a slowdown in inflation, while the economy remains resilient, and rising geopolitical tensions have also suppressed market risk appetite.

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, trading volume is expected to be relatively light for the rest of this week, and traders are cautious about making major bets.

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, trading volume is expected to be relatively light for the rest of this week, and traders are cautious about making major bets.

The MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) stock index fell 0.4%, while the Nikkei index in Japan rose 0.48%.

Market sentiment remains fragile, with investors concerned about the possibility of US President elect Donald Trump's policies triggering a tariff war, as well as reports of explosions in Ukrainian cities.

European stocks opened higher collectively, with the German DAX index up 0.63%, the UK FTSE 100 index up 0.17%, the French CAC40 index up 0.42%, and the European Stoxx 50 index up 0.80%.

The focus of the European trading session will be on the French market, with investors feeling uneasy about the prospects of the new government and its budget. On Wednesday, the French blue chip index CAC 40 fell to its lowest level since early August.

Wednesday's data showed that the growth rate of consumer spending in the United States in October was slightly higher than market expectations, but progress in reducing inflation rates seems to have stalled in recent months. The failure of inflation to return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, coupled with the prospect of higher tariffs on imported goods, may narrow the room for interest rate cuts next year.

Although the market still generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the third time in December, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on November 6-7 show that officials are divided on whether further rate cuts are needed.

Kristina Clifton, an economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said, "We still expect the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at its December meeting. However, if core inflation becomes strong again in November, it will challenge the Fed's view that inflation is trending towards 2%

Traders expect a 65% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next month and anticipate a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut by the end of 2025.

Macquarie strategists say that the inflation outlook has become increasingly uncertain, and the Trump administration's threat to impose tariffs could reignite price pressure.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index rose 0.11% to 106.23, after falling 0.7% the day before. The euro weakened slightly, rising 0.7% in the previous trading day as investors reduced their bets on the European Central Bank cutting interest rates. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, stated that interest rate cuts should be gradually implemented and shift towards a neutral stance rather than a loose one.

USD/JPY fell 0.29% to 151.53, but still close to the one month high reached the previous trading day.

The Bank of Korea unexpectedly lowered its benchmark interest rate for the second consecutive meeting on Thursday, as the economy stagnated and inflation fell more than policymakers expected. After this decision, the Korean won weakened.

In terms of commodities, crude oil prices remain stable, and concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East have eased due to Israel's ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah. Brent crude oil futures remain at $72.8 per barrel, while US WTI crude oil remains stable at $68.7 per barrel.

Spot gold remained flat at $2635, but fell nearly 4% in November, marking the worst monthly performance in over a year.

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