On Friday morning (November 29th) in the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading around $2638.91 per ounce. Gold prices rose slightly by 0.07% on Thursday, closing at $2637.60 per ounce. Despite the rebound of the US dollar, geopolitical uncertainty and trade war concerns boosted safe haven demand. Due to the US market being closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, trading was relatively light, and the gold price candlestick recorded a cross on Thursday.

According to Reuters, Russia launched its second large-scale attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this month on Thursday, causing severe power outages nationwide.

Russian President Putin stated that the Russian attack was a response to Ukraine's use of US medium range ATACMS missiles to attack Russian territory. He said that Russia's future goals may include the "decision-making center" in Kiev.

Russian President Putin stated on Thursday that Russia may use a new type of Oreshnik hypersonic missile to attack the "decision center" in Kiev in response to Ukraine's launch of Western missiles into Russian territory.

In the 33 month long Russia Ukraine war, Russia has not yet attacked any Ukrainian government ministries, parliament, or presidential office.

Kiev is tightly protected by air defense systems, but Putin's statement that Oreshnik missiles cannot be intercepted has been questioned by Western experts. Russia launched the missile for the first time towards a city in Ukraine last week.

Putin said at a meeting of the former Soviet Union's national security alliance in Kazakhstan, "Of course, we will respond to the continued use of Western made long-range missiles to strike Russian territory, as has already been said, including the possibility of continuing to test Oreshnik under actual combat conditions, as was done on November 21

He said, "Currently, the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff are selecting targets to strike on Ukrainian territory. These could be military facilities, defense and industrial enterprises, or decision-making centers in Kiev.

Ukrainian President Zelensky condemned Putin's "advocacy" of Oreshnik as a tactic aimed at undermining efforts to end the war, especially those of US President elect Trump.

He is not seeking to end this war. In addition, Putin wants to prevent others from ending this war, "Zelensky said in a nighttime video speech." He can continue waving his Oreshnik just to obstruct President Trump's efforts, which he will certainly make after he takes office. Putin hopes to escalate the situation to the point where President Trump's efforts fail, so that he cannot end the war

Putin said that Russia's large-scale nighttime attack on Ukraine was also a response to Kiev's use of American ATACMS ballistic missiles

Zelensky said that Russia used cruise missiles with cluster munitions in the attack, causing more than one million people to lose power,

The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russia used 91 missiles and 97 drones in Thursday's attack, with 12 missiles hitting targets, most of which were energy and fuel facilities.

The Ukrainian Air Force claimed to have intercepted 79 missiles and shot down 35 drones, with 62 drones' missing ', which means they are likely to have been subjected to electronic interference.

Zelensky also said that he is in talks with Western leaders, including NATO Secretary General Rutte, British Prime Minister Stamer, and German Chancellor Scholz, to develop measures to deal with "Russia's attempt to make the situation more unbearable and delay the war".

In addition, regarding the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the Israeli military stated that its air force attacked the facility used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon to store medium range rockets on Thursday, after both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement.

On Thursday, Israeli tanks attacked six areas in southern Lebanon, and the Israeli military stated that they noticed that the ceasefire agreement between them and Hezbollah had been violated after the suspects arrived in several areas of the southern region. Some of the suspects were driving cars.

On the 28th, the spokesperson of the Israeli Defense Forces stated that on that day, Hezbollah in Lebanon violated the ceasefire agreement and discovered some suspicious actions that posed a threat to Israel.

With the mediation of the United States and France, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hizbullah came into force on Wednesday. The agreement aims to allow the two peoples to start returning to their damaged homes in the border area. The Israeli military urges residents of towns along the border not to return for their own safety.

According to the ceasefire terms, the Israeli army should withdraw from southern Lebanon within a maximum of 60 days, but neither side can launch any offensive actions.

According to official media and Lebanese security agencies, Israeli tanks attacked six areas along the border on Thursday morning.

The Lebanese army stated that on November 27th and 28th, after the ceasefire agreement was announced, Israel repeatedly violated the agreement by violating it through air raids and targeting Lebanese territory with various weapons.

Later on Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he had instructed the military to be prepared for intense fighting in case of any violation of the ceasefire agreement. We are vigorously implementing a ceasefire. But if necessary, I have issued instructions to the Israeli Defense Forces to prepare for intense fighting in case the ceasefire framework is disrupted

Aneeka Gupta, head of macroeconomic research at WisdomTree, stated that as the Russia Ukraine conflict continues, geopolitical risks remain high. Although the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah has come into effect, Israel's retaliatory emergency measures still keep the situation tense.

She added that US President elect Trump's promise to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico has also had an impact. This has indeed increased people's concerns about the possible reactions of these two countries. Therefore, it remains an important supporting factor for gold

However, Trump's tariff plan is also seen as a potential driver of inflation, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, potentially limiting further gains in non yielding gold.

Wednesday's data shows that progress in reducing inflation in the United States over the past few months seems to have stalled, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious when further cutting interest rates.

At present, the market believes that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.8%, slightly lower than the previous day's 66%. In a low interest rate environment, gold often performs well. If the Federal Reserve delays the pace of interest rate cuts, it may boost the US dollar and undermine bullish morale.

The US dollar index rebounded moderately on Thursday, rising 0.3% to 106.42 during trading and closing at 106.16; On Wednesday, it fell to a two-week low of 105.85.

Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said, "There may be a few sluggish days before the end of this week, but I expect the US dollar to rebound with the arrival of December." He added that the trend of the US dollar returning below 106 on Wednesday seemed a bit "off fundamentals.

We are still talking about the exceptionalism of the United States, a long list of incredible issues in the eurozone, and this morning there are budget concerns in France

This trading day is the day after Thanksgiving, known as "Black Friday" in the United States. In previous years, the volatility may be slightly higher than on Thanksgiving Day, and there is a possibility of significant fluctuations. Investors need to be vigilant.

In order to attract consumers on Black Friday, large chain retailers plan to showcase interactive products and let consumers experience them, including Ray Ban's augmented reality glasses, electronics retailer Best Buy's oversized TV, and Nordstrom's new water therapy service. However, due to the short holiday period, retailers are also stocking up on a large number of the most popular basic products.

According to the National Retail Federation, a record 183.4 million people plan to shop offline and online between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday this year, up from 182 million people last year.

Overall, due to shoppers still facing high prices, retailers expect holiday season sales to experience the slowest growth rate since 2018.

Because nearly 70% of the US economy is driven by consumption, the sales performance on Black Friday will also affect market expectations for changes in the US economic outlook and monetary policy, and investors need to pay attention.

In addition, this trading day will release Germany's November employment data and the Eurozone's November CPI data, investors need to pay attention. Continue to focus on news related to the geopolitical situation.

At the daily level, the gold price is currently fluctuating in the 2600-2660 range. Pay attention to the breakthrough situation in this area.