On Friday (November 29th), US crude oil rose slightly during the Asian trading session, trading around $69.00 per barrel. Due to the early closure of the market on Thanksgiving yesterday, market volatility decreased. Fundamentally, Israel and Hezbollah accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement, and the geopolitical situation fluctuated, with oil prices maintaining a range of fluctuations.

The decrease in EIA inventory and the adjustment of the US dollar index support the rebound of US crude oil. In the short term, we mainly wait for whether the OPEC+meeting will postpone production increase, which will lead to another rebound in oil prices. The data for this trading day is relatively light, and we are waiting for the direction choice after the range adjustment.

Israel and Hezbollah accuse each other of violating the ceasefire agreement

The Israeli military stated that its air force attacked the facility used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon to store medium range rockets on Thursday, after both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement.

Israel stated that it also opened fire on "suspicious" vehicles that arrived in multiple locations in the southern region on Thursday, calling it a violation of the ceasefire agreement. The fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect on Wednesday.

According to the ceasefire terms, the Israeli army should withdraw from southern Lebanon within a maximum of 60 days, but neither side can launch any offensive actions.

Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah accused Israel of violating the agreement. Israeli enemies are attacking those who are returning to border villages, "Fadlallah told reporters, adding that" Israel is even violating the agreement in this form today

The Lebanese army subsequently accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement on Wednesday and Thursday. The mutual accusations between the two sides highlight the fragility of the ceasefire.

The Israeli airstrike on Thursday was the first since the ceasefire agreement came into effect on Wednesday morning. Lebanese security sources and Al Jadeed television pointed out that the airstrike occurred near Baysariyah north of the Litani River.

The ceasefire agreement stipulates the removal of unauthorized military facilities south of the Litani River, but does not mention military facilities north of the river.

According to official media and Lebanese security sources, earlier Israeli tanks opened fire on five towns and some farmland in southern Lebanon, and at least two people were injured.

All of these areas are located within 2 kilometers of the Blue Line that divides Lebanon and Israel, and even after the agreement was reached, the Israeli military declared the area as a border exclusion zone.

The Israeli military stated in a statement that several suspicious activities that pose a threat and violate the terms of the ceasefire agreement have been discovered. Any deviation from the agreement will be severely sanctioned by artillery fire, "said Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi.

Later on Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he had instructed the military to be prepared for intense fighting in case of any violation of the ceasefire agreement. We are vigorously implementing a ceasefire, "Netanyahu said in an interview with Israel's Channel 14.

But if necessary, I have issued instructions to the Israeli Defense Forces to prepare for intense fighting in case the ceasefire framework is disrupted

Hezbollah stated that its soldiers are still well-equipped to deal with the ambitions and attacks of Israeli enemies, and its forces are ready to "pull the trigger" and monitor Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon.

OPEC+postpones policy meeting to December 5th, possibly delaying production increase plan

OPEC+is discussing postponing the oil production increase plan originally scheduled to start in January 2025 to the first quarter of 2025, and conducting further discussions on this and other options before the policy meeting postponed to December 5th.

Two anonymous sources said that the issues that need to be addressed include the UAE production increase agreement reached in June this year, which is scheduled to be implemented from January 2025.

OPEC+accounts for approximately half of global oil production, and the organization's goal is to gradually phase out production cuts by 2025. However, the slowdown in global demand and the increase in production outside the alliance have posed obstacles to the plan and put pressure on oil prices.

Despite the organization's supply cuts, the global oil indicator Brent crude LCOc1 has remained in the range of $70 to $80 per barrel so far this year, trading at around $73 per barrel on Thursday and hitting a 2024 low below $69 in September.

Earlier on Thursday, OPEC+, consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies such as Russia, postponed its next production policy meeting from December 1st to December 5th. OPEC stated that postponing the meeting will avoid conflicts with other events.

OPEC stated in a statement that the Gulf Arab Summit will be held in Kuwait City on December 1st, and several OPEC+ministers plan to attend the summit.

The main OPEC+ministers held consultations before the meeting. Saudi Energy Minister and OPEC de facto leader Prince Abdulaziz had phone conversations with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak and Kazakhstan Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev during his official visit to Kazakhstan on Wednesday.

Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Russia held talks in Baghdad on Tuesday.

Russia launches attack on Ukrainian energy facilities, causing power outages for millions of people

Russian President Putin stated on Thursday that Russia may use a new type of Oreshnik hypersonic missile to attack the "decision center" in Kiev in response to Ukraine's launch of Western missiles into Russian territory.

In the 33 month long Russia Ukraine war, Russia has not yet attacked any Ukrainian government ministries, parliament, or presidential office. Kiev is tightly protected by air defense systems, but Putin's statement that Oreshnik missiles cannot be intercepted has been questioned by Western experts.

Russia launched the missile for the first time towards a city in Ukraine last week. Putin said at a meeting of the former Soviet Union's national security alliance in Kazakhstan, "Of course, we will respond to the continued use of Western made long-range missiles to strike Russian territory, as has already been said, including the possibility of continuing to test Oreshnik under actual combat conditions, as was done on November 21

He said, "Currently, the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff are selecting targets to strike on Ukrainian territory. These could be military facilities, defense and industrial enterprises, or decision-making centers in Kiev.

Ukrainian President Zelensky condemned Putin's "advocacy" of Oreshnik as a tactic aimed at undermining efforts to end the war, especially those of US President elect Trump.

He is not seeking to end this war. In addition, Putin wants to prevent others from ending this war, "Zelensky said in a nighttime video speech." He can continue waving his Oreshnik just to obstruct President Trump's efforts, which he will definitely make after he takes office.

Putin hopes to escalate the situation to the point where President Trump's efforts will fail, so that he cannot end the war Putin said that Russia's large-scale nighttime attack on Ukraine was also a response to Kiev's use of American ATACMS ballistic missiles.

According to Reuters, Zelensky said that Russia used cruise missiles with cluster munitions in the attack, causing more than one million people to lose power, which he called a "despicable escalation". Zelensky also said he is in talks with Western leaders, including NATO Secretary General Rutte, British Prime Minister Stamer, and German Chancellor Scholz, to develop measures to respond to "Russia's attempt to make the situation more unbearable and prolong the war"

From a technical perspective, there is currently no clear direction choice for US crude oil, and it is still fluctuating within the range. At the same time, the moving average is flat, and the indicators continue to adjust. In the short term, the range should be maintained, and the direction choice should be awaited. The focus should be on whether the box pressure around $70 breaks through.

Daily chart of US crude oil