Goldman Sachs: Gold rally may continue until 2025

2024-12-04 2757

Lina Thomas, a commodity strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, said that the decline in interest rates and sustained demand from central banks may keep gold prices rising until 2025.

In the latest news released on Monday, Thomas said, "Since 2022, despite the rise in US interest rates, gold prices have skyrocketed by 40%. This is too strange, as usually rising interest rates reduce the attractiveness of gold because it does not pay any interest like bonds

But Thomas said that this relationship underwent a huge change in early 2022. Previously, the United States and other Western countries froze (in some cases, seized) the assets of the Russian central bank in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

She said, "This has sounded the alarm for central banks around the world as they begin to diversify their foreign exchange reserves from the US dollar to an asset that no one can freeze, and that is gold

Therefore, Thomas stated that although investors seek higher returns from other assets, central bank purchases support gold prices.

She added, "We haven't seen a slowdown in central bank demand, and as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, investors are also reinvesting

On November 18th, Goldman Sachs' commodity analysts reiterated their position that gold prices will hit $3000 per ounce by the end of 2025.

Despite Trump's election victory and the overwhelming Republican victory in Congress triggering some selling and profit taking in the gold market, Goldman Sachs points out that the factors driving gold prices to record highs have not disappeared.

Analysts stated in a report, "The structural driving factor for this forecast is the increased demand from central banks around the world, and as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the inflow of funds into ETFs will bring a cyclical boost

Although central banks' gold purchases slowed down in the third quarter, analysts expect that as countries continue to diversify their official reserves away from the US dollar, gold demand will remain stable in the foreseeable future.

Goldman Sachs also pointed out that the growing debt of the US government may prompt more central banks to increase their holdings of gold.

Trump's victory has pushed up US bond yields and the US dollar, bringing significant resistance to gold. Traders and investors are concerned about the "America First" policies proposed by the elected president, but Goldman Sachs has stated that these policies may also support gold prices until 2025.

Analysts said, "The unprecedented escalation of trade tensions may revive speculative positions in gold

Daily chart of spot gold
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