Bank of America: Expected gold price to reach $3000 in the second half of 2025
Bank of America stated that gold prices are still expected to touch $3000 per ounce next year, but investors need to be patient as the current consolidation period may continue into the first half of next year.
Currently, gold is just trapped in an environment where we have nothing tangible to bring investors back to the market, "said Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America, at last week's 2025 Outlook Webinar
The second largest bank in the United States pointed out that gold will face significant resistance in the new year due to the continued sluggish demand from major Asian countries, the potential rise in bond yields faced by Western investors, and the strengthening of the US dollar.
Analysts stated in the report, "The Trump administration is highly likely to implement a policy combination of stronger growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and a stronger dollar, which could limit investors' interest in increasing gold purchases in the short term
The fixed income strategist of the bank predicts that potential trade tariffs and other US priority economic policies may prompt the Federal Reserve to slow down its easing cycle in 2025. Analysts expect only two interest rate cuts next year, one in March and the other in June.
Despite facing challenges, precious metal analysts predict that gold and silver will receive solid support in the new year, driven by economic uncertainty and geopolitical turbulence stimulating safe haven demand.
The bank predicts in its outlook that the average gold price will be around $2750 per ounce by 2025, which is consistent with previous predictions.
Although the US economy may show resilience next year, analysts emphasize that the continuously expanding debt of the US government is a major factor that could support gold prices.
Analysts said, "We are still concerned about the uncertain macro environment and fiscal outlook. The proportion of US Treasury bonds to the economy is expected to reach a historic high within three years of the next presidential term. Central banks remain the main holders of government bonds, and the fiscal outlook provides strong impetus for further diversifying reserves and increasing holdings of gold, which has always been a popular trade
Although investment demand may face difficulties in the first half of 2025 as the market adapts to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, Widmer points out that central banks around the world are expected to continue purchasing gold and supporting gold prices.
He added that it is difficult to exaggerate the risks posed by the growing US deficit to the ongoing trend of de dollarization.
He said, "If you are engaged in wealth preservation business and are concerned about the assets you are most concerned about, this will certainly increase the possibility of further diversification of investments. Apart from gold, there are not many assets that banks can hold.
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