Gold: The upward trend continues!
Is gold on the verge of a pullback? Now its price is approaching $2700, and there is fierce competition between long and short sides in the market, as well as many doubts. But I think gold may still continue to rise strongly today. Why is that? There are three reasons.
Firstly, safe haven factors have been providing strong support to the price of gold. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not stopped, the Palestinian Israeli conflict is also fighting, the Korean Korean relations are tense, and the Middle East is in chaos. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed that the Golan Heights belong to him, and his tanks are almost at the Syrian capital Damascus, which is only 25 kilometers away. He also bombed many Syrian bases, including 15 Syrian warships in the port of Latania. Syria is particularly chaotic after the Assad regime is challenged. Due to the global geopolitical turmoil, gold has become very popular as a safe haven asset, and investors are flocking to buy it, which is why the price of gold can remain stable at high levels.
Secondly, the Federal Reserve's decision is approaching, which is crucial for the trend of gold. It is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the third time this year next week, and the decision in December is the last one of the year, which has attracted special attention. Now the market estimates that the probability of interest rate cut by 25 basis points is 90%, which is mainly because the non farm data last Friday is too awesome. The non farm payroll report said that the number of employed people was 227000, much higher than expected, which makes the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates more likely this time. The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is like injecting a "stimulant" into the price of gold, causing it to keep rising. Based on previous experience, when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the US dollar usually weakens, and gold priced in US dollars is relatively more valuable. Investors will buy more gold, and the price will naturally rise.
Furthermore, from a technical perspective, gold is showing a trend of bull return.
The previous pullback and sideways fluctuations were actually corrective actions on the way up, with the aim of accumulating strength for a stronger upward trend in the future. Recently, the gold price has successfully broken through the key suppression point of 2656, breaking through the rectangular consolidation range, and bulls have begun to exert their strength. Although there was a rise and fall above 2676 for the first time, a top bottom transition was formed at the 2656 level, and the roles of support and suppression levels were exchanged, laying the foundation for a new round of upward attacks. The market price also approached the $2000 mark.
In the past three trading days, gold has risen by nearly $80, and the daily structure has shown a long lost strong saturated physical bullish line and a continuous bullish pattern, demonstrating the strong return of bulls. In trend definition, strength means a strong and continuous increase in volume, and the current trend is in line with this characteristic, with the low point constantly rising and the high point constantly refreshing. Although the $2700 integer level may bring some resistance and a pullback, it is just a small episode on the way up. All suppression in the upward trend is used to be broken through, and the retracement of key suppression points will provide new entry opportunities for bulls, without changing the overall upward rhythm.
In addition, from the hourly chart, the low point of the sideways trend after the night rise is at 2691, with a high-level sideways trend without a pullback. This is a strong performance and a typical time correction, trading time for space. It is highly likely that there will be continued upward momentum in the future. Therefore, relying on the 2691 position in the morning, it is advisable to decisively start bullish.
In summary, the sustained geopolitical risk aversion, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and favorable technical conditions have provided strong support for the continued strong upward trend of the gold trading day. This trading day is expected to continue its strong upward trend!
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