Australia's strong November employment data may suppress the prospect of February interest rate cuts

2024-12-12 2747

The Australian job market continues to withstand the pressure of economic weakness. Against the backdrop of another steady month of job growth, the unemployment rate dropped sharply in November to 3.9%, which may abruptly put an end to the increasing discussion of interest rate cuts in February.

Economists had predicted that the unemployment rate for the month would rise to 4.2%, consistent with recent data showing that the economy was struggling in the third quarter.

In the third quarter of this year, the economy only grew by 0.8% year-on-year, and the last time such a growth rate occurred was during the economic recession in the early 1990s.

Nevertheless, the Australian Bureau of Statistics announced on Thursday that there were an additional 35600 job opportunities added in November.

Just a few days before confirming that the job market remains stable, the Reserve Bank of Australia made a more moderate assessment of the economy, stating that it increasingly believes inflation will return to target levels as expected. This statement sparked a wave of excitement in the currency market, which quickly increased its bet that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut interest rates in February.

David Taylor, the head of labor statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, said, "In November, we saw a higher than usual number of unemployed people waiting to start working in October entering the workforce

The Australian Bureau of Statistics added that employment growth in November was 0.2%, with an average monthly growth of 0.3% since mid-2024, consistent with recent population growth.

The employment participation rate in November decreased by 0.1% from the historical high of 67.1% in September to 67.0%.

The data shows that the seasonally adjusted monthly working hours slightly decreased in November, lower than the monthly average increase of about 0.3% during the previous period from June to October.

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