On Thursday (December 12th) during the European trading session, the USD/CHF rose by 0.8% in early trading, reaching a two-week high after the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points (down 0.50% from 1%), while the market generally expected a 25 basis point cut.

This is the fourth policy relaxation in 2024, following three 0.25% rate cuts in March, June, and September, and also the largest rate cut in nearly a decade.

The Swiss National Bank stated that it will continue to monitor the situation and take corresponding actions to maintain price stability and keep inflation within the 0% -2% range set by the central bank (November inflation rate was 0.7%).

After the Swiss National Bank's action, it expanded the rebound of USD/CHF from 0.8725 (the highest price on December 6th), recovering for the fifth consecutive day, breaking the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.8957-0.8725 and weakening the lower platform around 0.8890.

We need to continuously break through these levels to confirm new bullish signals and pave the way for a complete pullback in the bearish range of 0.8957-0.8725.

The technical analysis on the daily chart is still mixed, as the 14 day momentum indicator further declines in the negative area, conflicting with the formation of the bullish allocation moving average and the 10/200 day moving average gold crossover.

The recent trend is expected to continue to lean towards bulls, while prices will remain above the Fibonacci level of 0.8841, which has broken through 50%, and will be strengthened by the 20 day moving average, which has returned to support levels.

On the downside side, we are cautious about falling below the 200 day moving average pivot point (0.8824), as it will signal a stagnant recovery and shift the focus towards the downside in the near future.

Resistance level: 0.8869; 0.8893； 0.8902； zero point eight nine one seven

Support level: 0.8841; 0.8824； 0.8814； zero point eight seven eight zero