Gold and silver are expected to remain the main commodities held in 2025, and they are two of the few metals that a Canadian bank added to its holdings before the New Year.

Commodity analysts at BMO Capital Markets have warned investors that their ratings for the broader commodity sector in 2025 will be downgraded slightly more than upgraded. Analysts say that the trend towards deglobalization may slow down the economy and suppress industrial demand for certain metals.

In a report released on Monday, analysts stated, "Tariffs have not helped the metal and mining industries, and this is an unavoidable fact." "Although the final structure will not be known until next year, we believe that the metal and commodity markets generally include bilateral tariffs from major countries in demand forecasts, but do not take into account multilateral trade wars in Canada, Mexico, Europe, and key countries. Therefore, our current demand forecast is lower than three months ago. In addition, if trade frictions escalate further, the downside risk to our demand forecast will increase

Analysts point out that the possibility of a global trade war will continue to exacerbate geopolitical uncertainty, providing further impetus for the gold market.

Analysts say, "We expect that as trade frictions intensify, the push for de dollarization of trade will resurface in the second quarter, which could push gold prices to new nominal highs

BMO expects the average gold price to be around $2750 per ounce in 2025, up 3% from previous expectations. In quarterly segmentation, analysts expect prices to peak in the summer, with an average price of $2850 per ounce in the third quarter.

Although the trade war will support the role of gold as a safe haven asset, analysts point out that President elect Donald Trump's America First policy may be a double-edged sword, dragging down gold while also supporting it.

We know that Trump plans to increase the federal budget deficit and impose higher tariffs. Both policies are essentially inflationary, paving the way for the Fed to "raise" interest rates in the long term, naturally reducing the attractiveness of gold investment holdings - especially considering that gold is currently measured in US dollars and ETF holdings are close to historical highs. However, it is worth considering the second-order effects of these policies, "the analyst said. According to reports, authorities in major Asian countries are already considering devaluing their currencies in 2025 to offset the impact of further tariffs, which could reignite retail gold demand in these countries and be a key driving force behind the rise in gold prices earlier this year. Another second-order effect is that if the United States exports inflation to low growth regions such as the European Union, this could lead to stagflation and potentially accelerate interest rate cuts. Ultimately, the timing of these different impacts will determine the volatility of gold prices in 2025

In addition to a potential trade war, Montreal Bank expects major Asian countries to continue to dominate the gold market.

Analysts say, "We believe that the global financial system is not fully prepared for this, so gold is once again being pulled back into the monetary system

In addition to gold, BMO analysts also hold an optimistic attitude towards Baiyin. However, they pointed out that there are more risks compared to gold.

BMO predicts that the average silver price next year will be $29 per ounce, up 6% from the previous forecast. They pointed out that the rise in gold prices remains the biggest bullish factor for silver in the new year.

Although silver's performance is expected to be weaker than gold next year, BMO stated that in the long run, silver will still receive good support as the transition to green energy and global economic electrification drive up industrial demand.