On Friday (December 20th) morning trading in the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading around $2593.38 per ounce. The rebound of gold price on Thursday was blocked and then fell back. Earlier in the session, it rose to around 2626.33/oz, but closed below 2600, closing at 2594.28/oz. The US data strengthened the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve would adopt prudent easing policies in the next year. The US dollar index and the yield of the US 10-year treasury bond bonds continued to rise, which suppressed the gold price.

Data shows that the US economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits also decreased more than expected.

Specific data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States decreased by 22000 last week, a more than expected decline and almost reversing the growth of the previous two weeks, indicating that the labor market is still gradually slowing down. As of the week of December 7th, the number of people requesting unemployment benefits, which reflects the recruitment situation, decreased by 5000 to 1.874 million after seasonal adjustment.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce stated that the final year-on-year growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter has been raised to 3.1%. The previous value was 2.8%.

Economists previously predicted that GDP data would not be revised. The latest report shows that the upward revision of consumer spending data and the downward revision of trade deficit data have outweighed the impact of the downward revision of inventory accumulation data. The quarterly economic growth rate from April to June was 3.0%. Federal Reserve officials believe that a GDP growth rate of around 1.8% will not lead to an increase in inflation.

Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity, increased by 3.7%, the fastest growth rate in a year and a half, compared to the previous value of 3.5%.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said, "These GDP data and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits show that the data is quite strong," adding that the robust economy and inflation risks once again prove that the Federal Reserve has no reason to be aggressive, which has traditionally been detrimental to non dividend gold.

The US dollar index, which measures the exchange rate of the US dollar against six rival currencies, hit a high of 108.480 on Thursday, surpassing the previous trading day's 108.180, the highest level since November 2022; On Thursday, it closed at 108.42, an increase of about 0.15%.

Several central banks held their final policy meetings for 2024 this week. The Bank of Japan maintained interest rate stability as expected, while the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4.75% as expected on Thursday.

Vassili Serebriakov, a foreign exchange strategist at UBS in New York, said, "The main focus is on the decisions of various central banks, which are generally very favorable for the US dollar. The hawkish interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan may be the two main driving factors.

Ronald Temple, Chief Market Strategist at Lazard in New York, said, "Since the election, interest rate expectations in the United States have increased, but outside of the United States, whether it is the European Central Bank or most other central banks, interest rate expectations have decreased. This has created a strong dollar, as the widening interest rate gap is beneficial to the United States. Therefore, I believe that people should expect the dollar to further strengthen because I do not believe that the interest rate or money markets have fully digested the impact of tariffs

The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds hit a high of 4.594% since the end of May on Thursday, and rose 7.6 basis points to 4.574% in late trading; On Wednesday, it jumped more than 11 basis points.

However, Vinny Bleau, head of fixed income capital markets at Raymond James, said: 'I think the bond market is quite volatile... I definitely think we're a bit oversold, especially with the release of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index data on Friday.'. Since early December, we have seen the 10-year bond yield rise, which seems a bit abrupt compared to the lowest level of 4.18%. I think there will be a slight decline in the future market Retest 4.30%

According to calculations by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the pricing of US interest rate futures shows that it is expected that the US will only cut interest rates by 37 basis points or one to two times by 2025. The earliest expected interest rate cut is at the June meeting, with a probability of 65%, and the probability of a rate cut in January is only 8.6%.

Investors are waiting for the release of the core PCE data (the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator) on Friday to gain further insight into the economic outlook. The market expects the index to show a month on month increase of 0.2% for both the overall and core PCE price indices in November, with year-on-year increases expected to be 2.5% and 2.9% respectively (previously 2.3% and 2.8%), which is biased towards continuing to suppress gold prices.

From a technical perspective, the gold price has closed below the 100 day moving average and 2600 level for two consecutive days. After Thursday's rebound was blocked, it fell back, indicating strong selling above. The MACD and KDJ dead crosses are running, and the gold price is facing further downside risks in the future. The initial target is around the low point of 2536.68 on November 14th, and the long-term target is expected to be around the 200 day moving average, currently around 2471.97.

However, on Thursday, the gold price still recorded an increase, with some buying support around 2580. There is still a possibility of another rebound and adjustment in the short term. The initial resistance above is around the 2600 level, and the 100 day moving average resistance is at 2606.98; The resistance of the 5-day moving average is around 2614.40, and it needs to close above this level to weaken the bearish signal in the future.