The economic data for the third quarter of the United States was impressive, with a final year-on-year GDP growth rate of 3.1%. Consumer spending was strong and the trade deficit improved, while the labor market remained resilient despite the slowdown. This affects the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy, making it difficult to operate aggressively and traditionally unfavorable for gold. On the market side, the US dollar index strengthened and hit a new high on Thursday. The yield of 10-year bonds climbed, and interest rate futures showed that the US interest rate cut in 2025 is limited and the time is coming later. At the global central bank policy meeting, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England remained inactive. UBS analysts said that the hawkish interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan have not affected the US dollar. Lazard strategists said that after the US election, US interest rate expectations will rise and other countries will lower, while the US dollar will strengthen and the impact of tariffs will not disappear. But there are also different voices. Raymond James, the director, believes that the bond market is volatile, and the yield of 10-year treasury bond bonds may be oversold. PCE data on Friday will be the key. If it meets or exceeds expectations, consolidate Federal Reserve policies, strengthen the US dollar, and suppress gold; On the contrary, it may change the market pattern, and investors need to closely monitor various dynamics to seize opportunities and risks.

The US Dollar Index

The US index is mostly in the range of 107.90-108, with a defense of $5 and a target of 108.50-108.90-109

In terms of EUR/USD, the overall price of EURUSD showed a downward trend on Thursday. The lowest price of the day fell to 1.0346, the highest rose to 1.0421, and closed at 1.0363. Looking back at the performance of the EURUSD market on Thursday, during the morning session, the price first gained short-term support and corrected upwards, followed by a slight rise in the European session and then fell under pressure. During the US session, it was weakly under pressure. Currently, EURUSD has broken through the 50% retracement level from 0.95349 to 1.12748. Therefore, the focus will be on the 1.0200 area at 618 level in the future. In the short term, we will continue to focus on breaking through the recent low of 1.0332 level under pressure. In the short term, we will temporarily focus on the resistance in the four hour 1.0410-20 range, and pay attention to the pressure once it is in place. At the same time, we need to focus on whether the price decline can stop.