On Monday (December 23), US crude oil rose slightly during the Asian session, trading around $69.84 per barrel. Last week, oil prices fell first and then rose, but recovered some of the losses on Friday. The weekly chart retraced but did not fall below the previous low.

Fundamentally, the hawkish interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are putting pressure on oil prices, while the downward trend in global demand expectations is also putting considerable pressure on oil prices, but overall they are within the box range.

The US dollar index is operating at a high level, and overall, under the constraints of supply and demand, the probability of oil prices breaking out of trend is not high.

Due to the Christmas holiday this week, market trading has been sluggish, with a focus on the EIA inventory data released on Thursday.

OPEC+, consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, has recently lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 for the fifth consecutive month

JPMorgan believes that the oil market will transition from a balanced state in 2024 to a surplus state of 1.2 million barrels per day by 2025,

Because the bank predicts that non OPEC+supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day by 2025, while OPEC production will remain at current levels.

White House National Security Advisor Suggests Trump to Pressure Russia: Helps Achieve Peace in Ukraine

White House National Security Advisor Sullivan said that a peace agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine can be reached by pressuring Russia,

And expressed the hope that future White House leaders Trump would take such action.

Sullivan said, "I think Trump must continue to pressure Russia. I believe this deal can be made

Sullivan believes that if Washington refuses to further support Kiev, "if we abandon Ukraine," and agrees to Moscow's conditions, it will seriously harm the long-term interests of the United States,

So I think the most important thing is for Trump to convey a message to Putin: the United States will continue to support Ukraine, and Europe will continue to support Ukraine unless you accept fair peace conditions.

US consumer spending remained stable in November, with the core PCE price index showing the smallest month on month increase in six months

In November, consumer spending in the United States increased due to strong demand for various goods and services, highlighting the resilience of the economy. The Federal Reserve expects that the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 will be less than the estimate in September.

After a series of hot data, good news came from last month's inflation.

The report released by the US Department of Commerce last Friday showed a mild month on month increase in prices, with the core inflation indicator showing the smallest increase in six months.

However, the year-on-year increase in core inflation rates, excluding food and energy, is still much higher than the Fed's target of 2%.

Due to the wealth effect brought about by income growth and the increase in investment portfolio value, consumers have the ability to consume, so the economy continues to grow from strong consumer demand,

LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach said: 'Inflation is milder than expected, but some categories of inflation stickiness support the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates significantly next year.'“

The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce stated that consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of US economic activity, increased by 0.4% last month. After downward revision, the data for October showed a growth of 0.3%.

Economists initially predicted that consumer spending would increase by 0.5%, compared to the previously reported 0.4% increase in October. Consumer spending surged at a rate of 3.7% in the third quarter, the fastest in a year and a half.

Assisted in driving the economy to achieve a growth rate of 3.1% for the quarter. The economy expanded at a rate of 3.0% in the second quarter.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve predicts a 3.1% increase in gross domestic product for the fourth quarter. Personal income increased by 0.3%, of which wages increased by 0.6%.

After adjusting for inflation, household disposable income increased by 0.2%, which means some households have used their savings to purchase goods.

The savings rate decreased from 4.5% in October to 4.4%. Economists believe that the slowdown in inflation rate last month will not change the tone of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose by 0.1%, compared to a 0.2% increase in October, without correction.

Federal Reserve's Daley calls this week's rate cut a 'difficult decision'

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Friday that the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points on Wednesday was a "difficult decision",

And she added that she agrees with Chairman Powell's view that further policy adjustments need to be approached with caution now. "

For me, the most important thing is that we need to recalibrate our policies. I think this is a difficult decision. Daley said in a television interview.

Now I feel that we have passed the recalibration stage and entered the next stage, and what we really need to do in the next stage is to focus on the information that will be released in the future

This is the first time a decision maker has spoken since the Federal Reserve lowered the policy rate range to 4.25% -4.50% on Wednesday. The latest forecast from the decision makers shows that most of them believe that the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 will be less than previously predicted.

The new median forecast for the appropriate level of federal funds rate by the end of next year is 3.9%, or a range of 3.75% -4.0%, higher than the previous forecast of 3.4%, or a range of 3.25% -3.50%.

Daley expressed satisfaction with the more moderate easing path shown in the economic forecast summary.

I am very satisfied with this median, "she said." It is reasonable for me, but we must maintain flexibility

At Powell's press conference on Wednesday - and his repeated mention of adopting a "cautious" approach from now on.

The interest rate futures market has readjusted its expectations, and there are doubts within the market about whether the Federal Reserve will achieve two 25 basis point interest rate cuts in 2025.

Our final number of interest rate cuts may be less than two, "said Daley. "

If inflation falls faster, or if you see a significant weakness in the labor market, we may have to react and ultimately take more action.

I am happy to sit in the midfield position and wait for the data to come out. We will make practical responses based on the data.

On a technical level, the daily trend of US crude oil has returned to range oscillation and continues to consolidate around the moving average, but the volatility has decreased. At the same time, the pressure on the moving average has been tested again, and the MACD indicator has stopped falling and stabilized, indicating a possibility of rebound. If it returns to the $70 integer mark, it is expected to test the upper edge pressure of the box again.