On Friday (December 27th), US crude oil rose slightly during the Asian trading session, trading around $69.63 per barrel. Fundamentally, the strong US dollar exerted pressure on oil prices as the US dollar index remained at a high level, offsetting market expectations for a rebound in demand.

In the short term, the daily price is consolidating around the moving average, maintaining range volatility in the absence of fundamental changes. This trading day, it is important to focus on whether the EIA inventory data can break the trend, provide short-term direction choices, and continue to monitor the geopolitical situation and changes in the US dollar index.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January 2025 has risen to 12.8%, compared to 8.6% the day before

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January 2025 is 87.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 12.8%.

The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by March 2025 is 50.6%, the probability of reducing interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively is 44.1%, and the probability of reducing interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 5.4%.

The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2025 has slowed down, putting pressure on the expectation of demand recovery, which is not conducive to the bullish trend of oil prices. We will continue to pay attention to the direction of US bond yields.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to the lowest level in a month last week, but the duration of unemployment has been longer

Last week, the number of initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level in a month, which is in line with the cooling but still healthy labor market and may prevent further interest rate cuts by Federal Reserve officials in the short term.

The US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that the number of initial state unemployment claims decreased by 1000 in the week ending December 21, seasonally adjusted to 219000, compared to economists surveyed by Reuters who predicted 224000.

Since the Thanksgiving holiday, the unemployment benefit data has fluctuated due to seasonal issues caused by the increase in temporary workers recruited by companies during the holiday season. However, the latest number of initial jobless claims still meets the average level of the past year, slightly higher than 220000 people, and there is almost no sign of upward trend. Layoffs are suppressed.

At the same time, unemployed people find it difficult to find new jobs and stay on the list of receiving unemployment benefits for a longer period of time, resulting in an increase in the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits. The report shows that as of December 14th, after seasonal adjustment, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits increased by 46000 to 1.91 million, the highest level since November 2021.

Previously, economists predicted that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits would be 1.88 million, and the average duration of unemployment in November was 23.7 weeks, the longest since April 2022, steadily rising from less than 20 weeks in April this year.

Iran and Hamas both issue statements condemning Israel's wave of airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei stated in a statement that these acts of aggression are a clear violation of international peace and security, and an undeniable crime against the brave and noble Yemeni people who spare no effort to support the oppressed Palestinian people in opposing occupation and genocide.

Hamas condemned the brutal terrorist aggression carried out by the Zionist enemy against its Yemeni brothers in a statement, targeting civilian sites including Sana'a airport and Hodeidah port.

Due to the limited economic data on this trading day, the volatility of oil prices continues to slow down. We will pay close attention to EIA inventory data and changes in the geopolitical situation during the day.

Technically speaking, the US crude oil daily chart is still fluctuating and consolidating around the 55 day moving average. Currently, the MACD has once again hit a dead cross downward, maintaining a box like treatment. Pay attention to whether the support around $68.50 is effective during the day.