In the past 2024, although the dollar index fluctuated, it showed a strong upward trend as a whole. In the fourth quarter, after Trump was elected and the Federal Reserve sent a hawkish signal to cut interest rates, the performance was particularly strong, with an annual cumulative increase of more than 7%. At the beginning of the new year in 2025, the US dollar index reached the 109 mark, marking the highest level since November 2022.

The market is influenced by multiple factors such as the central bank's gold buying frenzy, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and regional situations, leading to a steady increase in spot gold and silver prices in 2024. Gold closed up significantly by 27%, the largest annual increase since 2010, continuously breaking historical highs and approaching the $2800 mark in October. Silver closed up 21% annually, reaching a 10-year high of $34.86.

This week will see the first non farm payroll data since 2025. Last week, due to the New Year holiday, market volatility was not significant, but gold and silver still showed a rebound trend.

Gold once hit a low of around 2596 and then rebounded to a high of 2665, while silver rose from around 28.7 to around 29.8.

On Monday of today, gold and silver continued their downward trend from last Friday, and as of now, gold has hit its lowest point near the 2630 mark.

The market opened on Monday and fell like this, which is definitely not a good trend. I can't say for sure, but experience tells me that I definitely can't chase after it.

After all, the protagonist of this week is the non farm sector, and it is impossible to break out of the trend market at the beginning of the week. Therefore, there is a high probability that the pullback at the beginning of the week is trying to lure short positions.

From the current trend compared to last week's trend, I think there is a similar phenomenon.

Last week, it also fell to a low of 2596 at the beginning of the week, and then experienced a bottoming out rebound in the following trading days.

At the beginning of this week, there is currently a downward trend, so it is highly likely that this week, after reaching its extreme value, it will replicate last week's market trend.

Secondly, we can see from the hourly chart:

At present, an important position for gold is at 2620-25. If gold remains above the support of 2620 on Monday today, it is highly likely that it will remain in the consolidation range of 2620-50 before non farm payroll, and then wait for guidance from Friday's non farm payroll data.

On the contrary, if gold falls below 2620 today, it will touch around 2610, which cannot be broken. If 2610 falls below, gold will return to the downward trend.

If it stabilizes above 2610 after falling below 2620, the space for gold will be relatively narrow, and the range may be limited to 2610-2625

I also don't want to fall below 2620. If it doesn't fall below, there may still be a fluctuation of around $30 in the market.

If it falls below 2620, the trend may lean towards more bears. Even if the decline continues without acceleration, it will still be difficult to operate after a few days of consolidation.