On Thursday morning (January 9th), spot gold fluctuated narrowly at a high level in the Asian market, currently trading at $2662.59 per ounce. The gold price hit a nearly four week high of $2669.83 per ounce on Wednesday, after a weaker than expected December private employment report relieved some market participants that the Federal Reserve may not be so cautious about easing policy this year. The reports on Trump's tariffs also provided safe haven support for gold prices, but US bond yields also rose as a result. The continued rise of the US dollar made gold bulls hesitant, and gold prices fell to around the 2650 mark after hitting 2669, closing at $2661.46 per ounce.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said, "Weak private employment data is one of the reasons for the gold trend, because ultimately, weak employment data means the economy is weaker than many people expected

The ADP National Employment Report (commonly known as "small non farm") shows that the United States added 122000 private sector jobs in December, while economists expect an increase of 140000.

Another report from the Ministry of Labor shows that the number of initial jobless claims last week was 201000, lower than the expected 218000.

Melek said, "The bigger factor will be Friday's US non farm payroll jobs, with the market expecting a change of 163000; any significant change above this number will be detrimental to gold

Traders were on edge ahead of Friday morning's key US labor data and Trump's inauguration ceremony on January 20th, as they anticipated Trump would take a series of policy measures to begin his second presidential term.

The 10-year yield in the United States hit a new high in over eight months on Wednesday due to concerns that the policies introduced by the Trump administration may reignite inflation while promoting economic growth, leading to a decrease in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

CNN reported on Wednesday, citing informed sources, that US President elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide a legal basis for imposing a series of universal tariffs on allies and opponents, exacerbating market concerns about rising price pressures.

Michael Lorizio, head of US interest rate trading at Manulife Investment Management, said, "With the new government coming into power, people may be concerned about a typical first quarter inflation increase

Lorizio said that during the Trump administration, there is considerable uncertainty about what policies the new government will implement and what impact these policies will have on the economy, which makes investors cautious about buying longer-term debt.

When the likelihood of having an impact on the US economy is very high, long-term bonds will truly be affected, and you begin to see some concerns about buying interest at the far end of the curve

The yield of 10-year treasury bond rose 0.8 basis points to 4.693% on Wednesday, reaching a peak of 4.73%, the highest since April 25.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting released on Wednesday showed that Fed officials unanimously believe that inflation may continue to slow down this year, but as policymakers begin to consider the expected policy impact of the incoming Trump administration, they also believe that the risk of continued price pressures is rising.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated on Wednesday that the inflation rate should continue to decline in 2025 and allow the Fed to further lower interest rates, although the pace of the rate cuts is uncertain.

The US dollar index rose 0.27% to near the 109 mark on Wednesday, and briefly rose 0.62% to 109.37 during trading, further approaching the two-year high of 109.54 set last week. However, part of the reason for the rise of the US dollar is due to concerns about Trump's tariff policies, which also provide safe haven support for gold prices.

Investors expect that policies such as Trump's relaxation of regulations and reduction of taxes will promote economic growth, but there are also concerns that these policies, as well as unconfirmed tariff actions, may lead to a re acceleration of inflation.

The Washington Post reported on Monday that Trump was considering narrowing the scope of tariffs, but he later denied it.

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said, "This complements the overall theme of a strong dollar, even though ADP (employment data) was disappointing and the dollar continued to rise on the day. This means that people should not resist this, as it is truly an ongoing market trend

At present, the market believes that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates by 39 basis points this year, and the first interest rate cut may occur in June. The employment report released by the US government on Friday is expected to show that employers added 160000 new jobs in December.

From a technical perspective, the daily level of gold prices has already stabilized at the Bollinger Bands, with MACD and KDJ golden crosses. Short term opportunities are biased towards bulls and are expected to further rise towards the Bollinger Bands around the 2700 level.

On this trading day, the funeral of former US President Jimmy Carter will be held, which is a national mourning day in the United States. Trading of CME's stock index futures contracts will end earlier at 22:30 Beijing time; Interest rate and agricultural futures trading will end earlier at 02:15 Beijing time on the 10th; Trading of treasury bond bond futures contracts ended at 03:30 on the 10th ahead of schedule. The trading of precious metals, energy, and foreign exchange markets continues as usual.

The data on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has been released as early as Wednesday, but there are still reports of layoffs by challenger companies in December and speeches by Federal Reserve officials in the evening. Investors need to pay attention.