According to FactSet statistics, the median estimate of total non farm employment in the United States in December 2024 is 153000. FactSet Research System is a financial data and software company headquartered in Novak, Connecticut, USA, providing relevant financial data and analysis to analysts, securities administrators, and investment bankers of major financial institutions worldwide.

If the actual increase in non farm employment is 153000, it will significantly decrease compared to last month and also be lower than the average level of 189500 in the past 12 months.

The total number of non farm employment in November 2024 increased by 227000, while the expected median was 200000. In the past 12 months, the total number of non farm employment exceeded the expected median for 7 months and fell below the expected median for 5 months. During this period, the actual figures were on average 6.4% higher than expected. In the past 5 years (60 months), the total number of non farm employment exceeded the expected median 65% of the time, and fell below the expected median 35% of the time. During this period, the actual figures were on average 3.0% higher than expected. The historical actual figures in this analysis reflect the revised figures, rather than the original figures released on the day of the report.

The median estimate of 153000 is based on 19 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a minimum of 125000 to a maximum of 200000, with a difference of 75000. This difference is less than the average difference of 83300 between the lowest and highest estimates over the past 12 months.

The median unemployment rate for December 2024 in the United States is expected to be 4.2%.

If the actual unemployment rate is 4.2%, it will remain the same as last month's figure. However, it will be 4.0% higher than the average level of the past 12 months.

The unemployment rate for November 2024 is 4.2%, while the median estimate is 4.1%. In the past 12 months, the unemployment rate exceeded the median estimate in 6 months, remained at the same level as the median estimate in 2 months, and fell below the median estimate in 4 months. In the past 5 years (60 months), the unemployment rate exceeded the median estimate 30% of the time, remained at the same level as the median estimate 13% of the time, and was below the median estimate 57% of the time.

The median estimate of 4.2% is based on 17 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a minimum of 4.1% to a maximum of 4.3%, with a spread of 20 basis points. The spread is equal to the average spread over the past 12 months between the lowest and highest estimates of 20 basis points.

At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the total non farm payroll and unemployment rate for December.