On Monday (January 13th), spot gold traded around 2689.26. Despite stronger than expected US employment data reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates drastically this year, the uncertainty of Trump's new administration policies has increased safe haven appeal, still supporting gold prices. US crude oil rose more than 1%, trading near $77.58 per barrel. Traders are concerned that the most extensive package of sanctions imposed by the US on Russian oil and gas revenues to date may lead to supply disruptions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.63% last Friday at 41938.45 points; The S&P 500 index fell 1.54% to 5827.04 points; The Nasdaq index fell 1.63% to 19161.63 points.

equity market

The US stock market was sold off last Friday, and the S&P 500 index gave up all its gains since 2025, after an optimistic employment report triggered new inflation concerns and strengthened the Federal Reserve's bet on cautious interest rate cuts this year. The major stock indexes on Wall Street have fallen for the second consecutive week.

CFRA Research market strategist Sam Stovall said about the impact of higher than expected employment data heat on the stock market, "We have had a difficult start to the year." He added that the stock market environment could become "quite challenging.

The Russell 2000 Index, mainly composed of domestic small cap stocks, fell 2.27%. The index has fallen 10.4% from its closing high on November 25th and is now in a correction zone. The Wall Street panic index hit a three week high last Friday.

The US Department of Labor report shows that employment growth unexpectedly accelerated in December, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, and the labor market performing strongly at the end of last year.

Higher than expected employment growth may translate into faster economic expansion, leading to price increases. To curb the still high inflation, the Federal Reserve may be forced to adopt a more conservative stance on interest rate cuts this year.

According to the FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, traders believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time this year in June and then keep them unchanged for the rest of the year. Securities firms have also revised their forecasts for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and Bank of America Global Research even predicts a possible rate hike.

However, Chicago Fed President Goolsby stated that there is no evidence to suggest that the economy is overheating again, and added that he still expects further interest rate cuts to be appropriate.

What put pressure on the stock market was that the 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5%, the highest point since November 2023, but then slightly fell back to 4.966%. Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index, except for the energy stock index which rose 0.34%, most sectors fell.

A survey conducted by the University of Michigan showed that the consumer confidence index dropped from 74 last month to 73.2 in January, further dampening market sentiment. New inflation concerns have become a focus, forcing the Federal Reserve to release a cautious forecast for monetary easing policy last month, as the Fed expects President elect Trump to take office in 10 days, when trade and immigration policies will change.

Investors will closely monitor the release of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) on January 15th, and if the index is higher than expected, it may trigger further volatility.

gold market

Gold prices rebounded last Friday due to the uncertainty of Trump's new administration policies increasing the attractiveness of safe haven, even though stronger than expected US employment data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates significantly this year.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2686.24 per ounce; US gold futures rose 0.9% to $2715.00. The gold price once fell to $2663.09 per ounce, after data showed that the United States added 256000 new jobs last month, while economists expected an increase of 160000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, with an expected 4.2%.

However, the price of gold quickly rebounded and reached its highest level since December 12th, with the potential to achieve a weekly increase of over 1.7%. Independent metal trader Tai Wong said, "The price trend of gold indicates a lack of steadfast metal sellers; this is a lesson learned from last year's significant rise

After the release of employment data, the US dollar rebounded, while US stock index futures fell sharply. The market shows that traders now expect the Federal Reserve to only cut interest rates by 30 basis points this year, while before the data was released, the expected rate cut was about 45 basis points.

As the inauguration ceremony of President elect Trump approaches on January 20th, investors are anxious about his vow to impose tariffs on a large number of imported goods, fearing that it will fuel inflation and further limit the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates.

Spot silver rose 0.9% to $30.38 per ounce; Platinum fell 0.2% to $959.10; Palladium rose 2.2% to $943.93. All three metals recorded weekly gains.

Crude oil market

Oil prices rose more than 3% last Friday, reaching their highest level in three months, as traders were concerned that the most extensive package of sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia's oil and gas revenues to date would lead to supply disruptions.

The Biden administration has imposed new sanctions on Russian oil producers, tankers, intermediaries, traders, and ports, aimed at cracking down on every aspect of Moscow's oil production and sales.

Brent crude oil futures closed at $79.76 per barrel, up $2.84 or 3.7%, breaking through $80 per barrel for the first time since October 7th during trading. US crude oil futures rose $2.65, or 3.6%, to close at $76.57 per barrel, also hitting a three-month high. Both contracts rose more than 4% during trading, following an unverified sanction detail document circulating among traders in Europe and Asia.

Sources from Russia's oil trade and India's refining industry told Reuters that sanctions will severely disrupt Russia's oil exports to its main buyers India and Asia.

In a video posted on social network X, Anas Alhajji, Managing Partner of Energy Outlook Advisors, said, "India is racing to find alternatives

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that sanctions will reduce Russia's oil exports and make oil prices more expensive.

US ultra-low sulfur diesel futures (formerly known as heating oil contracts) rose 5.1% to close at $105.07 per barrel, the highest since July.

foreign exchange market

The US dollar surged last Friday after data showed that more jobs were created in December than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate cut cycle at its policy meeting later this month.

Another report shows that in January, US consumers' inflation expectations for the next year and beyond jumped, and the US dollar continued to rise.

After the data was released, the USD/JPY rose to its highest level since July and then turned downwards. USDJPY fell 0.1% to 157.845 yen at the end of trading in New York. The EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since November 2022. The euro closed at $1.0244 in New York, down 0.5%, marking its second consecutive weekly decline. A Reuters survey this week shows that a considerable number of forex forecasters expect the euro to reach parity with the US dollar by 2025.

A report from the US Department of Labor shows that the US economy added 256000 new jobs in December, far exceeding the 160000 predicted by economists. However, the employment growth rate for November has been reduced to 212000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.2%; After a 0.4% month on month increase in November, the average hourly wage increased by 0.3% in December. The average hourly wage in December increased by 3.9% year-on-year, and the increase in November was 4.0%.

Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank, wrote that the strong performance of December employment data clearly eliminates the need for the Federal Reserve to urgently cut interest rates. For some time, Rabobank's core view has been that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates once this year. However, if Trump immediately launches his policies, it is imaginable that the window may be completely closed. "

During his campaign, Trump vowed to impose tariffs, reduce taxes, and deport illegal immigrants on a large scale, all of which are widely believed to stimulate inflation. A consumer confidence survey conducted by the University of Michigan shows that rising inflation expectations also provide support for the US dollar.

The report shows that consumer expectations for one-year inflation in January jumped from 2.8% in December to 3.3%, the highest level since May. The inflation forecast for the 12 months two years before the outbreak of COVID-19 was 2.3% -3.0%.

According to the estimation of the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), after the release of US data, the US interest rate futures market has fully digested the expectation of the Federal Reserve suspending the easing cycle at its January meeting. The market still believes that there will be only a 27 basis point interest rate cut in 2025, which means only one rate cut, and the first rate cut may be at the June meeting.

The GBP/USD hit its lowest level since November 2023, closing at $1.2208 in New York, a decrease of 0.8%. The pound also fell last Thursday due to the sell-off of UK government bonds and concerns about the financial situation of the UK government.

Sources say that in Japan, the prospect of sustained wage growth and the boost in import costs from the weak yen have made the Bank of Japan more concerned about rising inflationary pressures internally, which may lead to the central bank raising its price forecast this month.

USD/JPY rose 0.4% last week. In the past six weeks, the US dollar has risen against the Japanese yen for five weeks.

The US dollar index rose to its highest level since November 2022, marking its sixth consecutive week of gains. This is the longest weekly uptrend since 11 consecutive weeks of gains in 2023. The US dollar index rose 0.4% at the end of the session, closing at 109.68.

Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said, "The biggest risk facing the bullish view of the US dollar is if participants seek to take profits and reduce risk before Trump's inauguration ceremony early next week.

international news 

Trump demands Gaza ceasefire deadline, sends Middle East envoy to discuss ceasefire matters

A senior Israeli official revealed that Steven Witkov, the incoming Middle East envoy appointed by US President elect Donald Trump, arrived in Israel on the 11th to urge Israel to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza before Trump takes office on the 20th of this month. It is reported that during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the 11th, Witkov conveyed Trump's desire to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza before he was sworn in. Trump has previously stated that if the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) fails to release detainees before his inauguration as US President on January 20th, Hamas will "pay a painful price". After meeting with Witkov, Netanyahu announced the dispatch of a high-level delegation led by the Director of the Israeli Intelligence and Special Services Agency (Mossad) to Qatar for negotiations. (CCTV)

US announces new round of sanctions on Russia's energy sector, Russia says it will not remain indifferent

On January 11th local time, the Russian Satellite News Agency reported that the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement stating that it would respond to the United States' decision to impose a new round of sanctions on Russia's energy sector. The statement pointed out that the US government is attempting to damage the Russian economy at the cost of disrupting global market stability. And what is sacrificed are the interests of America's European allies and American residents. The statement stated that Russia will not remain indifferent to Washington's hostile measures and will consider them when formulating foreign economic strategies. On the 10th, the US government announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting large oil and gas production companies, oil shipping and export businesses, oilfield service providers, oil and gas production projects for export, as well as senior officials and corporate executives in the energy sector. (CCTV)

Hungarian Foreign Minister: The new round of US sanctions against Russia brings new challenges to energy supply in central Europe

On January 12th local time, Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjardo stated that the new round of sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia poses new challenges to energy supply in central European countries. The Hungarian government will closely consult with regional partners and strive to minimize the increase in fuel prices. Siyardo stated that Serbia plays an important role in the supply of crude oil in central Europe, and the inclusion of Serbian companies on the sanctions list will lead to a significant increase in crude oil prices.

Yin Xiyue does not attend the first formal trial debate of the impeachment case

Yoon Jae geun, the lawyer of South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol, stated today (January 12th) that due to the continued illegal attempts of the Senior Public Officials Criminal Investigation Division and the National Investigation Department of the Police Department to execute arrest warrants, Yoon Seok yeol will not attend the first formal debate of the presidential impeachment trial scheduled for the 14th by the Constitutional Court in order to ensure the personal safety of the President and prevent accidents. Yin Jiagen said that in order for the President to attend the Constitutional Court hearing, it is necessary to address personal safety and security issues. If the safety issue is resolved, the President will attend the Constitutional Court hearing at any time. The Constitutional Court of South Korea will hold the first formal debate on the impeachment trial of President Yoon Suk yeol on the 14th of this month, followed by four formal debates on January 16th, 21st, 23rd, and February 4th.

IMF warns: Trump's tariff policies exacerbate global economic uncertainty

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the economic policies of the new US administration, particularly the threat of Trump imposing tariffs, will bring greater uncertainty to the global economy by 2025. IMF Managing Director Georgieva stated at a meeting held at its headquarters on Friday that, given the size and role of the US economy, the world is highly concerned about the policy direction of the new US administration, particularly in terms of tariffs, taxes, deregulation, and government efficiency. She stated that this uncertainty is particularly evident in the future direction of US trade policy, exacerbating the "headwinds" facing the global economy, especially for countries and regions deeply integrated into the global supply chain.

Trump's nominated Treasury Secretary Bessent will sell assets to avoid conflict

Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary nominated by US President elect Trump, will sell assets, close his macro hedge fund Key Square Capital Management, and plan to divest from dozens of funds, trusts, and investments in preparation for becoming the top economic policy maker in the United States. In a letter to the Ethics Office of the Ministry of Finance, Besent outlined the steps he would take to "avoid any actual or apparent conflicts of interest in the event that I am confirmed as the Minister of Finance

The budget has been cut by $17 million, and the Los Angeles Fire Department Chief says it seriously affects firefighting capabilities

On January 10th local time, the Director of the Los Angeles Fire Department stated that the Los Angeles City Government had previously reduced the budget of the city's fire department by $17 million for 2025, which had a negative impact on the department's ability to extinguish wildfires. The director of the Los Angeles Fire Department stated that over 100 firefighting equipment cannot be put into use, and budget cuts have led to the cancellation of positions such as mechanics, seriously affecting the department's ability to maintain equipment. (CCTV)

Chile temporarily closes over 40 forest parks and protected areas due to increased risk of forest fires

On the 10th local time, the Chilean National Forestry Company announced that due to the expected high temperatures in the next two days, it has decided to temporarily close national forest parks and nature reserves in seven major regions of the country to reduce the risk of forest fires. According to the warning information released by the Chilean Meteorological Agency, temperatures in some areas of Chile are expected to exceed 35 degrees Celsius on the 11th and 12th of this month, accompanied by strong winds, which may lead to rapid spread of fires. The Chilean National Forestry Corporation has decided to temporarily close over 40 national forest parks and nature reserves in seven regions, including Coquimbo, Valparaiso, and Araucania. (CCTV)

Domestic news

China's first offshore wind power autonomous detection platform officially put into operation

On January 11th, China's first offshore wind power autonomous detection platform was officially put into operation at the Shanghuan Port wind farm in Rudong, Jiangsu. Traditional submarine cable inspection is carried out by dragging unpowered detectors with large manned vessels, which not only requires a personnel configuration of at least 9 people, but also can only detect 10 kilometers per day. The offshore wind power comprehensive testing platform put into operation by Longyuan Power, a national energy group, utilizes a combination of unmanned ships and robots to achieve remote control of unmanned operations. The maximum daily detection range has been increased to 100 kilometers, greatly improving the efficiency and accuracy of submarine cable testing.

The National Business Work Conference was held in Beijing

The National Business Work Conference will be held in Beijing from January 11th to 12th. The meeting emphasized that by 2025, the national business system should consciously unify its thoughts and actions with the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee, focusing on eight aspects of work: first, promoting the special action to boost consumption, and strengthening the implementation of the policy of exchanging old for new consumer goods. Innovate diversified consumption scenarios, expand service consumption, develop digital consumption, accelerate the construction of a high standard market system, and improve the modern commercial circulation system. Secondly, we will spare no effort to stabilize foreign trade and promote high-quality development of trade. Accelerate the cultivation of new foreign trade drivers, expand cross-border e-commerce, develop green trade, and promote trade digitization. Multiple measures will be taken to support enterprises in exploring diversified international markets. Actively expanding imports. Innovate to enhance service trade and develop digital trade. The third is to promote the attraction of foreign investment, stabilize the stock and expand the increment, and create a first-class business environment. We will expand our independent and unilateral opening-up in an orderly manner, continue to build the "Invest in China" brand, leverage the investment carrier effect of national level economic development zones, and strengthen the service guarantee for foreign-funded enterprises. The fourth is to actively connect with international high standard economic and trade rules and build an open platform at a high level. Promote the improvement of quality and efficiency in the pilot free trade zone, expand the authorization of reform tasks, optimize the functions of the open platform, and promote the improvement of exhibition quality and efficiency. The fifth is to promote international cooperation in industrial and supply chains, and improve the quality level of foreign investment cooperation. Deepen the reform of the foreign investment management system and improve the comprehensive overseas service system. Sixth, strengthen practical economic and trade cooperation, and promote high-quality joint construction of the "the Belt and Road" to go deep and practical. Improve economic and trade cooperation mechanisms, deepen cooperation in "Silk Road e-commerce", coordinate the promotion of landmark projects and "small but beautiful" livelihood projects, and coordinate cooperation between traditional and emerging fields. Seventh, actively participate in global economic governance and strengthen multilateral and bilateral regional economic and trade cooperation. Fully participate in the reform of the World Trade Organization, expand the global network of high standard free trade zones, and deepen bilateral economic and trade relations. Eighth, prevent and resolve major risks, and resolutely safeguard national security. (Ministry of Commerce)