On Wednesday (July 24th) morning trading in the Asian market, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with US crude oil currently trading around $77.40 per barrel. Oil prices fell about 2% on Tuesday, hitting a six week low of 76.40 as expectations for a ceasefire in Gaza increased and concerns about demand from major Asian countries intensified. However, API crude oil inventories have significantly decreased for four consecutive weeks, slightly easing demand concerns, but there are still some difficulties in reversing the downward trend.

Brent crude oil futures closed down $1.39, or 1.7%, at $81.01 per barrel on Tuesday; US crude oil closed down $1.44, or 1.8%, at $76.96 on Tuesday.

This is the lowest closing price of Brent crude oil and US crude oil since June 7th, and marks the first time these two major indicators of crude oil have entered the technical oversold zone since early June.

US diesel futures also closed at their lowest point since June 7th, while gasoline futures closed at their lowest point since June 14th.

Daily chart of major US crude oil contracts

In the Middle East, efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement between Israel and the radical organization Hamas have gained momentum over the past month, with the mediation of Egypt and Qatar, according to the plan proposed by US President Biden in May.

The Gaza War provided support for oil futures as investors digested the risk of potential global crude oil supply disruptions in major Middle Eastern production areas.

Claudio Galiberti, Director of Global Market Analysis at Rystad, said in a report, "The Middle East ceasefire negotiations and the uncertain macroeconomic outlook of Asian powers have put downward pressure on oil prices this week

The strengthening of the US dollar, reaching a nine day high, has also put pressure on oil prices. Despite the unexpected decline in existing home sales in the United States in June.

The decline in existing home sales in the United States in June exceeded expectations, as median home prices hit a new high, but increased supply and lower mortgage rates bring hope for a rebound in real estate activity in the coming months.

The data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Tuesday showed that existing home sales have declined for the fourth consecutive month, coupled with weak housing construction and building permit data, indicating that the real estate market shrank in the second quarter after driving economic growth in the first quarter.

Record high housing prices and high mortgage rates dragged down existing home sales in June, "said Nancy Vanden Houten, senior economist at Oxford Economics." Mortgage rates have recently fallen, and we expect them to further decline as the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, which will support a moderate rebound in home sales later this year. "

The sales of completed homes in June decreased by 5.4% month on month, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million units, the lowest level since December last year. Economists surveyed by Reuters previously predicted that sales of existing homes would decline to 4 million units in June.

The median price of existing homes surged 4.1% compared to the same period last year, reaching a historic high of $426900. Although housing prices have hit historic highs for two consecutive months, the pace of price increases has slowed down due to supply approaching the highest level in four years.

The API crude oil inventory data provided some support for oil prices, which slightly moved away from the nearly six week low in late Tuesday trading.

Data shows that API crude oil inventories decreased by 3.857 million barrels, with market expectations for a decrease of 2.484 million barrels; API gasoline inventory decreased by 2.765 million barrels, with market expectations of a decrease of -495000 barrels; API refined oil inventory decreased by 1.497 million barrels, with market expectations for an increase of 33000 barrels.

The official EIA crude oil inventory series data from the United States will be released at 22:30 on Wednesday, and investors need to pay close attention to it.

In terms of the global economic outlook, a draft communiqu é on Tuesday showed that financial leaders of the Group of 20 (G20) are expected to be encouraged by the increasing possibility of a soft landing for the global economy, while warning of the risks posed by "escalation of war and conflict", although it was not specifically named.

According to this document, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors gathered in Rio de Janeiro this week also plan to point out that high inflation may lead to uneven global economic recovery.

The market will continue to pay attention to news related to the US election. US Vice President Harris criticized Republican candidate Trump at his first campaign rally since replacing Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that she leads Trump by a narrow margin.

In a 17 minute speech, Harris fiercely criticized Trump's weaknesses, comparing her former prosecutor background to Trump's record of serious offenders.

Harris listed a series of liberal priorities, stating that if elected, she would take action to expand abortion channels, make it easier for workers to join unions, and address gun violence, in stark contrast to Trump.

The Reuters/Ipsos national poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday showed that Harris leads Trump's 42% with 44% approval rating among registered voters, following President Biden's announcement on Sunday to withdraw from the race and support Harris to succeed him as the Democratic candidate.

On this trading day, the initial values of the July SPGI manufacturing PMI for multiple countries in the United States and Europe will also be released, and investors need to pay close attention. Also, pay attention to the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision.