Yen Rises Amid Tariff Worries

2025-01-26 4346
(fxcue news) - The Japanese yen strengthened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Friday, as investor sentiment dropped on the sidelines after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico are coming on Saturday, although crude flows may be exempted from the levies. He also pledged to move forward with 10 percent import duties on China and threatened 100 percent tariffs on BRICS nations over dollar replacement moves. The European Union has started its "strategic dialogue" with key automotive stakeholders in Brussels and promised an "action plan" to help support the industry that is under threat from transition to carbon neutrality, Chinese competition and tariff threats. The safe-haven JPY may be supported by trade war fears, geopolitical risk, and predictions on a BoJ rate hike. The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that underlying inflation remained somewhat below 2% and also stated that the central bank will continue to pursue an accommodative monetary policy in order to support price trends. The ECB delivered a widely expected 25-basis point interest-rate cut and guided for a further reduction in March due to concerns about economic growth. In economic news, the value of retail sales in Japan was up 3.7 percent on year in December, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday - coming in at 16.123 trillion yen. That beat forecasts for an increase of 3.4 percent and was up from 2.8 percent in November. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales fell 0.7 percent after adding 1.9 percent in the previous month. For the fourth quarter of 2024, retail sales were down 0.3 percent on quarter and up 2.6 percent on year at 44.160 trillion yen. For all of 2024, retail sales were up 2.5 percent to 167.179 trillion yen Meanwhile, industrial production in Japan was up a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent on month in December, the Ministry of Economy and Trade said in Friday's preliminary report. That beat forecasts for a decline of 0.1 percent following the 2.2 percent contraction in November. On a yearly basis, production sank 1.1 percent. Upon the release of the data, the METI maintained its assessment of industrial production, saying that it continues to fluctuate indecisively. According to the METI's forecast of industrial production, output is expected to rise 1.0 percent in January and 1.2 percent in February. The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 2.4 percent in December, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday. That was beneath expectations for 2.5 percent, which would have been unchanged from November. The jobs-to-applicant ratio was 1.25, in line with forecasts and unchanged from the previous month. The participation rate came in at 63.4 percent, shy of expectations for 63.5 percent - which would have been unchanged from the November reading. In the Asian trading today, the yen rose to nearly a 2-month high of 169.18 against the Swiss franc, a 2-week high of 159.93 against the euro and nearly a 2-week high of 191.19 against the pound, from yesterday's closing quotes of 169.40 and 160.21 and 191.42, respectively. If the yen extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around against the franc, against the euro and against the pound. Against the U.S. and the Canadian dollars, the yen edged up to 153.92 and 106.24 from Thursday's closing quotes of 154.09 and 106.32, respectively. The yen may test resistance around 150.00 against the greenback and 103.00 against the loonie. Against the Australia and the New Zealand dollars, the yen advanced to nearly a 2-month high of 95.62 and a 4-1/2-month high of 86.66 from yesterday's closing quotes of 95.75 and 86.83, respectively. The next possible upside target for the yen are seen around 94.00 against the aussie and 84.00 against the kiwi. Looking ahead, Germany's unemployment data for January is due at 3:55 am ET in the European session. The jobless rate is expected to rise to 6.2 percent in January from 6.1 percent in December. In the New York session, Canada GDP data and budget balance for November, U.S. personal income and spending for November, U.S. PCE price index for December, U.S. Chicago PMI for January and U.S. Baker Hughes oil rig count data are slated for release. At 8:00 am ET, Destatis publishes Germany's flash inflation figures for January. Consumer price inflation is seen at 2.6 percent, the same as in December.
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