The rise in consumer prices in Tokyo has triggered market expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, limiting the room for yen depreciation. However, due to the uncertainty of Trump's policies, the lack of bullish confidence in the US dollar has limited its appreciation. The US dollar/Japanese yen has shown downward pressure in recent technical terms, and if it falls below 153.70, it may further decline to the 153.00 and 152.00 ranges. If there is a rebound, the resistance level is around 155.00. The key support and resistance levels will determine the short-term trend.

Fundamental analysis

The latest data released by Tokyo shows that consumer prices have increased in January of this year. This data has continued the market's expectation of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and to some extent limited the depreciation space of the yen. However, due to the uncertainty of US President Trump's policies, there is a lack of confidence among dollar bulls, which has constrained the rise of the US dollar. This may also limit further appreciation of the US dollar/yen exchange rate in the short term, especially before the release of the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data.

In general, the weakness of the yen is mainly affected by the Bank of Japan's policy. Although the rise of consumer prices in Tokyo has brought some hope to the market, the improvement of US bond yields and risk sentiment is still an important factor in the rise of the dollar/yen. However, due to the uncertainty of Trump's policies, the rise of the US dollar/Japanese yen may be relatively moderate.

Technical analyst interpretation:

From a technical perspective, the US dollar/Japanese yen has shown some technological breakthroughs in recent trends. The US dollar/Japanese yen has recently broken through the short-term upward trend channel and formed a monthly low at the 153.70 area touched on Monday. If the price further falls below this level, it may trigger more selling and push the exchange rate downwards to seek support.

In addition, the oscillation indicators on the daily chart indicate that there is a certain negative trend in the current technical situation, but it has not yet entered the oversold area. Therefore, if the selling volume further increases, the US dollar/Japanese yen may further decline, and the target area may point to the integer level of 153.00, or even reach the range of 152.40 and 152.00, which coincides with the 100 day moving average and may provide some support for the price.

However, if the USD/JPY stabilizes and rebounds, the initial resistance level will be around 155.00. If the price breaks through this resistance zone, it may trigger a short-term replenishment market, pushing the USD/JPY towards the 155.40-155.45 zone, and then possibly challenging the integer level of 156.00 and the high point of 156.25 this week. If the USD/JPY breaks through the 156.75 zone and stabilizes, it may change the recent market bias, push the exchange rate further upward, and lay the foundation for more upward movements.

In summary, the current technical trend of the US dollar/Japanese yen shows some downward pressure, but if market sentiment recovers or the US dollar experiences a strong rebound, the exchange rate may experience a short-term rebound. The important support and resistance levels on the technical side will be the key to determining the trend in the coming days, especially near key price levels such as 153.70, 153.00, 152.00, and 155.00, 156.00. The market is closely monitoring the breakthrough of these levels.