On Monday (February 10th), spot gold rose above $2900 per ounce during the European trading session, with a intraday increase of 1.34%. Market concerns over US President Trump's tariff remarks continue to ferment, while US economic data reinforces expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates. The safe haven and anti inflation properties of gold jointly drive up gold prices.

Global market risk aversion is rising, and investors remain vigilant about the economic uncertainty that Trump's tariff policies may bring. Previously, Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports and stated that he will implement a policy of reciprocal tariffs on all countries. This statement has intensified market concerns about global trade tensions, prompting capital inflows into safe haven assets such as gold. In addition, the market is paying attention to the upcoming release of US CPI data this week and the congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which are expected to provide further guidance for the gold trend.

Economic uncertainty combined with inflation concerns benefits gold

Despite the overall positive US non farm payroll data released last Friday, the market remains vigilant about future inflation trends. Data shows that the non farm payroll in the United States increased by 143000 in January, lower than the market expectation of 170000, but the previous value was revised up to 307000. In addition, the unexpected drop in the US unemployment rate to 4.0% indicates that the job market remains robust. In terms of salary growth, the average hourly wage in January increased by 0.5% month on month and 4.1% year-on-year, with salary growth exceeding market expectations, further strengthening the reason for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates.

The recent statements by Federal Reserve officials also confirm the market's expectations for the continuation of high interest rate policies. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari said that if inflation data is good and the labor market remains resilient, he may support further interest rate cuts, but the Fed is still in the "observation" stage. Chicago Fed President Goolsby pointed out that the policy uncertainty of the US government makes the economic outlook more difficult to predict, which also leads the market to pay more attention to safe haven assets. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Governor Kugler believes that the US economy is still healthy, but the process of inflation falling is not balanced.

Against this backdrop, market expectations for a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have further cooled, and the US dollar index has slightly strengthened. However, despite the rise of the US dollar, gold remains strong, indicating that safe haven demand still dominates market sentiment.

On the technical side, there may be short-term consolidation, but the overall trend is still bullish

From a technical perspective, the daily relative strength index (RSI) of spot gold is still in the overbought area, indicating that it may face some consolidation pressure in the short term. If the gold price stabilizes above $2900, it may further open up upward space.

expectation

The focus of market attention this week will be the congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the January CPI data in the United States. If inflation data is stronger than expected, it will further strengthen the Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining high interest rates, thereby providing support for the US dollar, which may put some pressure on gold in the short term. However, in the long run, market concerns about global economic uncertainty still exist, and the safe haven demand for gold may continue. In the short term, the performance of gold prices around $2900 will be the key focus of market attention, and if they can effectively break through, this round of upward trend may continue.

In terms of the support level below, there is initial support for gold prices in the range of $2855-2854 per ounce. If it falls below this level, it may fall back to around $2834 per ounce. If further explored, the $2815-2814/ounce range will be a key support level, while the $2800 integer level may also provide strong support.